Anonymous gambler wins R$ 5,2 million betting on military attacks against Iran.
An unidentified trader amassed profits of €862.340 (approximately R$5,2 million) through bets on the Polymarket platform. The trades involved predictions about military offensives in Iran. The case raises questions about the possible misuse of confidential information.
An analysis published by CNN showed that the trader placed bets moments before attacks by the United States and Israel became public. The track record of correct predictions included Israeli offensives in 2024, American bombings against Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025, and joint operations that escalated the conflict in the region. According to Infomoney, the pattern of bets and the timing of the operations caught the attention of forecasting market experts and security analysts.
The operator's success rate reached 93% on high-value bets since 2024. Todd Phillips, a finance professor at Georgia State University, told CNN that performance at that level (80% to 90%) is statistically improbable, suggesting that the investor may have had access to confidential data before the market opened, although the possibility of extraordinary luck cannot be ruled out.
The anonymous trader's bets have been placed since 2024. The transactions were recorded shortly before military offensives became public knowledge.
On Tuesday (24), another case involving military events was recorded. Operators invested half a billion dollars in bets on the value of oil. The operations took place just 15 minutes before the announcement by Donald Trump, President of the United States, about the five-day “pause” in attacks on Iran’s oil infrastructure.
The blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps described the trader's behavior as "almost premonitory."
The bets were placed on the Polymarket platform. The platform operates outside the direct regulatory umbrella of the US. The military operations that were the subject of the bets took place in Iran and the conflict region.
The 93% success rate is considered unusual even among experienced traders. The trader's identity remains unknown due to the anonymity of accounts on the platform. It is not possible to definitively confirm whether there was access to confidential data or if the results are due to exceptional luck.
The situation increases pressure for stricter regulations on platforms that allow betting on political, economic, and war-related situations. Lawmakers in the United States are trying to create barriers against the use of confidential information in global conflicts. Competitors have announced they are strengthening their verification systems to ensure the transparency of their operations.
Polymarket has not commented on the incident. The platform is authorized by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to conduct operations in the U.S. market.
