Online gambling generates US$1 billion amid military operations and the deaths of leaders.

Online betting platforms moved more than US$ 1 billion in predictions about military operations and deaths of political leaders. Lawyer Ronaldo Lemos, director of the Institute of Technology and Society of Rio de Janeiro, published an article in Folha de S.Paulo on Sunday (29) detailing the growth of this market.

According to information published by Folha de S.Paulo, bets related to Ali Khamenei's departure from power in Iran alone reached US$194 million, highlighting the scale that this type of predictive market has reached in recent months.

The Polymarket and Kalshi platforms have expanded their markets to include geopolitical events and armed conflicts. This expansion followed the escalation of military operations that resulted in the Iran war.

Individual bettors have won over US$500 on Polymarket with predictions about the death of the Iranian leader. One specific bettor accumulated over US$1 million with a near 100% accuracy rate on dozens of military operations. The identified pattern shows bets placed just hours before the operations took place.

Kalshi canceled all bets related to Khamenei's death. The company refunded bettors. The decision sparked outrage because the platform had heavily promoted these markets on social media in the preceding days.

An incident on January 7th of this year highlighted the potential for manipulation of these markets. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt ended a press conference at exactly 64 minutes and 40 seconds. There were bets that the conference would last less than 65 minutes. The probability of exceeding 65 minutes was 98% at the time of the interruption. Those who bet on "no" won 50 times their stake. The incident went viral with accusations that the secretary acted intentionally.

An Israeli military officer has been indicted for gambling on covert operations. The extent of public officials' involvement in schemes to enrich themselves through betting markets remains under investigation.

Cuba has become the new focus of betting markets. More than US$934 million has already been wagered on the country. The probability of a US attack on Cuba is 35% by December 2026. The chance of President Miguel Diaz-Canel "leaving" power by December is 64%.

Polymarket has decided to revoke and completely archive the markets related to nuclear attacks and detonations that were created in early March. In February 2026, there were bets placed on a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran.

Senators in the US began debating the issue after the incident with the White House press secretary. There are several bills in the US to regulate or prohibit prediction markets. None seem to be making progress.

Ronaldo Lemos states in the article that there is a "flagrant moral problem in betting on death and geopolitical conflicts." The author highlights the "problem of economic incentives for carrying out military operations." According to Lemos, "all this shows the advance of the 'betification' of the world. Bets are not just an economic activity. They are an existential condition that is colonizing various dimensions of human life."

It is unclear whether there is a systematic leak of institutional and military secrets to gamblers. The interests in getting rich through gambling are already entrenched.