Betting did not empty the retail market: blaming the regulated sector is to turn a blind eye to the challenges.
The retail sector has once again blamed betting for an alleged financial crisis it is facing. This is based on a study by Strategy& Brazil, commissioned by the Think Tank Retail institute, which attributes responsibility for an alleged outflow of up to R$ 50 billion annually from the retail sector to online betting.
Estimates of this magnitude confuse the total volume of transactions circulating on the platforms with their profit. Treating the gross flow of transactions as money permanently withdrawn from the market is a basic accounting error.
A study conducted by LCA Consultoria, based on public data, shows the other side of this discussion by estimating an average net monthly expenditure of R$ 122 per gambler. This data does not eliminate the need for policies promoting responsible gambling, but it contributes to a more precise understanding of the phenomenon. In other words, this billion-dollar figure is unsustainable.
Looking at the LCA study, we can say that retail chains haven't lost customers to online betting, but rather to a behavioral shift that has been happening for years.
Retail is losing ground to digital marketplaces. Blaming the regulated, fixed-quota sector is to ignore the challenges retail faces. Today's consumer feels much more comfortable navigating online sales apps, platforms, and digital channels.
While retail sales grew less than 2% in 2025, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), online sales advanced by double digits in the same year, according to GetNet. The clothing and cosmetics segments alone saw increases of 39% and 20%, respectively.
Mercado Libre makes 95 sales per second, according to its report for the fourth quarter of 2025. In contrast, bets represent less than 1% of household consumption.
This new retail sector doesn't appear clearly in official statistics. The reason is a methodological blind spot: the IBGE's (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) trade barometer, the Monthly Trade Survey (PMC), was designed to track the sales volume of traditional physical retail, leaving marketplaces in a limbo that isn't fully captured. We are measuring a new economy with old standards.
The entire country has learned to pay for everything in installments. Offers in up to 24 installments have transformed credit into one of the main drivers of consumption. But when installment payments run into revolving credit card debt, with interest rates nearing 500% per year, the debt becomes an unmanageable snowball.
Gambling is not the source of household debt. Brazilians have simply changed the way they buy and are now tied to credit. Those who close their eyes to these truths will not lose to gambling; they will lose to their own inertia.
(*) Plinio Lemos Jorge is president of the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) and the article was published in Estadão.