Bets: Are we discussing the problem in a correct and honest way?
Whenever I see a new round of posts and articles about the harm that gambling causes to society, I find myself asking the same question: do people really care about the well-being of society, or are they talking so much about it because the topic has become fashionable, generating headlines, engagement, and a platform?
Before anyone twists the argument: the problems linked to gambling exist and are serious. Addiction, loss of control, debt, dysfunctional families. All of this deserves prevention, firm regulation, and real public policy. That's not what I disagree with.
What bothers me is this selective outrage, the scale of the debate, and, above all, the lack of comparison.
The size of the bets
In 2025, the first full year of the regulated market, betting generated R$ 37 billion in revenue in Brazil — this is the GGR, the gross revenue of operators after prize payments, according to data from the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets of the Ministry of Finance. There were 25,2 million Brazilians betting in the legal market. [1]
And let's not sugarcoat it: online gambling causes problems. Between 2023 and 2024, data from the III LENAD estimate that approximately 1,4 million people presented patterns consistent with gambling disorder. The survey covers gambling and betting in general (Mega-Sena, Jogo do Bicho and others), not exclusively online sports betting. [2]
But it's also worth remembering that, between 2023 and 2024, the market was unregulated. Not only that, estimates indicate that between 41% and 51% of sports betting in Brazil is still in the illegal market, while research from the Locomotiva Institute indicates that 61% of bettors stated they had used at least one illegal platform in 2025. In this environment, there are not the same requirements for control, monitoring, limits, self-exclusion, and player protection imposed on authorized companies.
Therefore, when analyzing the harms associated with betting, it is crucial to separate the regulated market from the illegal one. [3] [4] [5]
The alcohol
Euromonitor estimated the Brazilian beer market at approximately 14,9 billion liters in 2025. Applying, as a calculation hypothesis, an average price of R$ 7 per liter, we would arrive at approximately R$ 104,3 billion spent on beer in 2025, and I am not accounting for spirits, wine or the illegal market. [6]
A study by Fiocruz estimated that, in 2019 alone, alcohol consumption was associated with 104,8 deaths in Brazil — approximately 12 deaths per hour — and the problem is not limited to liver diseases: alcohol is associated with cardiovascular diseases, various types of cancer, digestive and neurological diseases. [7]
Furthermore, alcohol is associated with accidents, assaults and other external causes of death, not to mention the numerous cases of non-fatal and unreported accidents and violence. [8]
Alcohol also leads to productivity losses resulting from premature deaths, sick leave, absences, early retirements, and lost workdays. In 2025, Social Security granted 12.758 temporary disability benefits with diagnoses classified under ICD-10 F10, related to mental and behavioral disorders resulting from alcohol use.
This number, however, only represents absences where alcohol appears directly as a recorded diagnosis. The data does not capture absences resulting from illnesses, accidents, and other conditions in which alcohol consumption acted as a causal or contributing factor, and there are no official statistics that allow for precise quantification of these. [9]
The Social Security data also does not cover absences of up to 15 days or absences of civil servants linked to their own social security schemes. [10]
Tobacco
An estimate built from consumption volumes and available average prices suggests that consumer spending on cigarettes may have reached around R$30 billion in the legal market in 2025. The estimate is based on approximately 117,4 billion cigarettes consumed, according to a KPMG survey, and average prices estimated by Ipsos/Ipec for the legal market, of approximately R$8 per pack. This is a market estimate, not an official revenue figure. [11]
According to INCA's estimate, released in 2025, smoking causes approximately 174 deaths per year in Brazil, almost 20 per hour. The most recent economic study, based on 2022 data, estimated the cost of smoking-related diseases for the country at R$ 153,5 billion per year: R$ 67,2 billion in direct medical costs and R$ 86,3 billion in indirect costs, mainly resulting from lost productivity due to premature deaths, disability, and informal care. In short, it shows that for every R$ 1 of gross profit in the tobacco industry, Brazil incurs approximately R$ 5,10 in smoking-related costs. [12] [13]
Other agents
The same type of analysis can be done in relation to excessive screen and internet use. In Brazil, the average is 9 hours and 13 minutes per day connected, of which about 3 hours and 37 minutes are dedicated to social networks. [14]
A survey by the Cactus Institute with AtlasIntel indicates that 43,5% of people who experience symptoms of anxiety reported using social media for three hours or more per day. [15]
Regarding drugs, at the end of 2023, almost 200 people were imprisoned for crimes stipulated in the Drug Law. Applying to this contingent the average cost of approximately R$ 1.800 per month per prisoner, estimated in a study by the National Council of Justice (CNJ), we would have about R$ 4 billion per year just for custody. This cost is not paid only by the drug user: it is shared by the whole society. [16] [17] [18]
Furthermore, there are a myriad of other social problems, gigantic and widely known to everyone.
The irony is that, while the state spends billions on this fight, there are public demonstrations by artists who normalize or celebrate drug use in songs, videos, shows, and social media, many of whom constantly appear in the media criticizing drug addiction.
It's curious to note that the same artist who would be condemned for advertising a licensed and regulated betting product isn't even remembered for promoting and treating as harmless the consumption of a product that finances criminal factions, harms people's health in numerous ways, and is directly linked to violence.
The point
I'm not defending betting. I'm defending consistency.
If an activity causes harm to society, then that harm should be measured and regulated accordingly. If the justification for a public policy is social harm, we need to measure that harm consistently and compare its magnitude, prevalence, causality, and externalities.
The standard needs to be the same for everyone. If the criterion is to measure which product generates more expenses, more deaths, more indirect costs, more compulsive behaviors, and so on, we should include all the industries mentioned, and others, in the discussion.
Speaking only of direct losses, in betting, a lost bet results in a loss of money; in the case of alcohol and tobacco, the loss stems from the purchase of harmful products.
There is also an irony that often goes unnoticed: we pay twice: in consumption and in combating the consequences.
None of this makes alcohol, cigarettes, etc., "the same" as gambling. They are different phenomena, with different mechanisms, requiring different public policies. The question is another: why is one activity treated as a national emergency, while others—responsible, according to different studies and methodologies, for hundreds of thousands of deaths and social costs reaching hundreds of billions of reais—are so ingrained in our culture that we simply cease to see them?
Perhaps because it's easier to point the finger at the new villain. Alcohol is on the dinner table. Cigarettes have been a part of society for over a century. Cell phones are in everyone's hands, including the person writing—and reading—this text.
Some artists who criticize beer today have already made a lot of money from beer advertising. The President of the Republic himself promised during his campaign that Brazilians would once again have the money to buy their beer.
The problem isn't discussing betting. The problem is discussing only betting and forgetting all the other problems, as if they didn't exist, or as if, because they are already embedded in society, they were acceptable, or as if their damages, because they are already "accounted for," were therefore tolerable.
Brazilian society needs more coherence—in all areas, that is. We need to worry less about likes, clicks, and shares and bring discussions about relevant issues to a higher level, grounded and marked by critical impartiality, without a political agenda, without partisanship, and without the need to appear morally superior, attacking only the problem of the moment.
(*) Artur Rezende is a lawyer specializing in Business Law, iGaming and Legal Ops, and a member of the Gaming, Betting and Responsible Gaming Committee of the OAB-SP (São Paulo Bar Association).
Methodological note: the figures presented are not directly comparable to each other. They were produced in different years, by different institutions, and using different methodologies. Some represent administrative data; others are epidemiological or economic estimates; and some market values are calculations derived from volume and average price. The comparison, therefore, serves to gauge the magnitude of the phenomena and demonstrate the need for proportionality in public debate, and not to assert that one activity produces exactly X times more damage than another.
[1] Secretariat of Prizes and Bets / Ministry of Finance; GGR and 25,2 million bettors in 2025. Reference: Poder360. URL: https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-sportsmkt/bets-tiveram-receita-de-r-37-bilhoes-em-2025/
[2] Fiocruz / III LENAD; data on gambling disorder. URL: https://fiocruz.br/noticia/2024/11/estudo-da-fiocruz-consumo-de-alcool-custa-r-18-bi-por-ano-ao-pais-e-causa-12-mortes
[3] LCA Consultores / IBJR; estimate of 41% to 51% of the Brazilian betting market in an unregulated environment. URL: https://ibjr.org.br/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/LCA_IBJR_Dimensionamento_Mercado_ilegal.pdf
[4] Locomotiva Institute; 2025 research indicating that 61% of bettors made at least one illegal bet. URL: https://ilocomotiva.com.br/estudos/mercado-ilegal-apostas-brasil-2025/
[5] Ministry of Finance; rules for the control, storage and transmission of data from authorized operators. URL: https://www.gov.br/fazenda/pt-br/composicao/orgaos/secretaria-de-premios-e-apostas/apostas-de-quota-fixa/tire-suas-duvidas/dados-e-informacoes/quais-dados-devem-ser-armazenados
[6] Kirin Holdings / Global Beer Consumption Report; volume of beer consumption in Brazil. The value of R$ 104,3 billion is a hypothetical calculation in the text. URL: https://www.kirinholdings.com/en/newsroom/release/2025/0123_01.html
[7] Fiocruz; study on the impact of alcohol consumption in Brazil, including 104,8 deaths in 2019. URL: https://fiocruz.br/noticia/2024/11/estudo-da-fiocruz-consumo-de-alcool-custa-r-18-bi-por-ano-ao-pais-e-causa-12-mortes
[8] Fiocruz; study on the impact of alcohol consumption in Brazil, including 104,8 deaths in 2019. URL: https://fiocruz.br/noticia/2024/11/estudo-da-fiocruz-consumo-de-alcool-custa-r-18-bi-por-ano-ao-pais-e-causa-12-mortes
[9] Ministry of Social Security; temporary disability benefits by ICD-10, including F10 in 2025. URL: https://agenciagov.ebc.com.br/noticias/202601/previdencia-social-concede-546-254-beneficios-por-incapacidade-temporaria-por-transtornos-mentais-e-comportamentais
[10] Ministry of Social Security; temporary disability benefits by ICD-10, including F10 in 2025. URL: https://agenciagov.ebc.com.br/noticias/202601/previdencia-social-concede-546-254-beneficios-por-incapacidade-temporaria-por-transtornos-mentais-e-comportamentais
[11] KPMG / Ipsos-Ipec; sources used in the estimate of cigarette spending. The figure of R$ 30 billion is an estimate, not official revenue. URL: https://www.kpmg.com/br/pt/home.html
[12] National Cancer Institute (INCA); estimate of 174 annual deaths from smoking. URL: https://www.gov.br/inca/pt-br/canais-de-atendimento/imprensa/releases/2025/aconselhamento-em-consultas-de-rotina-impulsiona-cuidado-integral-para-o-controle-do-tabagismo
[13] INCA; economic study with 2022 data: R$ 153,5 billion in costs, R$ 67,2 billion direct, R$ 86,3 billion indirect and a ratio of R$ 5,10 for every R$ 1 of gross profit. URL: https://www.gov.br/inca/pt-br/canais-de-atendimento/imprensa/releases/2025/a-cada-r-1-de-lucro-da-industria-do-tabaco-brasil-gasta-r-5-com-doencas-do-tabagismo
[14] Digital 2024 / We Are Social; time spent using the internet and social networks in Brazil. Journalistic reference: Poder360. URL: https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-tech/brasileiros-passam-9-horas-por-dia-nas-redes-sociais-diz-estudo/
[15] Cactus Institute / AtlasIntel; Panorama of Mental Health. URL: https://www.institutocactus.org.br/panorama-da-saude-mental/
[16] Ministry of Justice and Public Security; 2025 balance sheet, including 1,44 tons of marijuana and R$ 9,5 billion seized from organized crime. URL: https://www.gov.br/mj/pt-br/assuntos/noticias/balanco-do-mjsp-registra-r-9-5-bilhoes-retirados-do-crime-organizado-e-1-44-mil-toneladas-de-maconha-apreendidas
[17] SISDEPEN; data from 12/31/2023 on people imprisoned for crimes under the Drug Law. URL: https://www.gov.br/senappen/pt-br/servicos/sisdepen
[18] National Council of Justice; reference to an average monthly cost of approximately R$ 1.800 per prisoner. URL: https://www.cnj.jus.br/customedio-de-pessoa-presa-no-brasil-e-de-r-1-800-por-mes-aponta-estudo/
