Brazil ranks 2nd in topics after federal government blockade and remains accessible.
Polymarket, a predictive markets platform banned from operating in Brazil since April 2026, remains accessible to Brazilian users despite the block imposed by the federal government. On Thursday (September 10), the country reached second place in the platform's trending topics ranking, behind only a match between PSV and Sparta Rotterdam.
According to O Globo, a single negotiation linked to the Brazilian presidential election has already involved US$147 million, equivalent to approximately R$750,8 million. Until Thursday morning, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appeared as the favorite in this specific negotiation. Around 18 pm, the situation reversed, and candidate Flávio Bolsonaro took the lead in the betting odds.
On the platform's website, there are dozens of markets related to the Brazilian elections. In addition to the presidential race, O Globo identified bets on elections for state governments in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Bahia, Minas Gerais, and Amapá.
Blockage and its gaps
The Ministry of Finance has announced that Polymarket is blocked in Brazil, as are the social media networks linked to it. The ministry stated that occasional access to the website by some users does not imply authorization for the company to operate in the country, nor does it indicate that the blocking measures have been lifted.
The blocking was determined by the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets of the Ministry of Finance (SPA-MF) and forwarded to the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), which notified more than 20 telecommunications service providers to implement the measure. As compliance depends on each provider individually, the same address may be unavailable at different times.
“Even when the page can still be opened, it is not possible to place bets or make deposits,” the ministry stated. “The SPA [Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil] constantly monitors the effectiveness of the measures and any attempts to circumvent the restrictions, adopting new measures whenever necessary to prevent the illegal offering of bets in the country.”
Anatel has blocked nearly 30 predictive marketplace websites, including Polymarket and Kalshi, which has a Brazilian among its founders.
Still, users in the country can access these platforms in two ways. One is through the use of virtual private networks (VPNs), which mask the connection's location. The other is the delay in the uniform implementation of blocking by regional and small-scale providers, according to Paulo Cesar Costa, CEO of PH3A, a company specializing in anti-fraud solutions.
In April, the National Monetary Council (CMN) prohibited financial and payment institutions from offering services related to betting and prediction markets not authorized by Brazilian law. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) stated that it could not comment on specific cases; in 2024, the court approved a resolution explicitly prohibiting bets whose object involves the outcome of elections.
International restrictions
Polymarket faces restrictions in countries other than Brazil. In Hungary, the government blocked access to the platform in January 2026 due to a lack of a license to operate gambling games. In Portugal, the site was blocked after the presidential elections, also due to a lack of authorization to operate. In Italy, Poland, and Belgium, predictive market platforms can be blocked if they operate without authorization or fail to comply with local regulations.
In the United States, predictive markets are permitted as long as they comply with regulations from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi operates as a contracts exchange; Polymarket returned to the US market in 2025 under compliance rules.
