Congress appoints joint committee to review the Provisional Measure on Betting, and the Chamber's consulting service points to a lack of methodology in the government's accounts.
The National Congress on Wednesday (September 30th) appointed the members of the joint committee that will analyze Provisional Measure No. 1.394/2026. The MP was issued by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to prohibit the operation, offering, intermediation, and advertising of fixed-odds betting in the country. The composition will be published in the Official Gazette of the National Congress this Thursday (October 1st). The deadline for submitting amendments also ends this Thursday, and the system will accept proposals until 11:59 PM.
On the same day, the technical note from the Budget and Financial Oversight Consultancy of the Chamber of Deputies was attached to the case file. According to the document, the government presented estimates of revenue loss without specifying the assumptions and methodology used to arrive at them.
The committee does not yet have a date for its installation. The presidency will be held by a senator and the rapporteurship by a representative, but the names depend on an agreement between the leadership. At the installation meeting, the president and rapporteur will be chosen. The rapporteur will have to analyze the text and amendments and prepare the report to be voted on by the committee.
Composition
Full Members of Parliament: Pedro Lucas Fernandes (União/MA), Doutor Luizinho (PP/RJ), Isnaldo Bulhões Jr. (MDB/AL), Antonio Brito (PSD/BA), Augusto Coutinho (Republicanos/PE), Rodrigo Gambale (Podemos/SP), Sóstenes Cavalcante (PL/RJ), Alberto Fraga (PL/DF), Pedro Uczai (PT/SC), Jandira Feghali (PCdoB/RJ), André Figueiredo (PDT/CE), Jonas Donizette (PSB/SP) and Tarcísio Motta (PSOL/RJ).
Alternate deputies: Osmar Terra (PL/RS), Domingos Sávio (PL/MG), Arlindo Chinaglia (PT/SP), Paulo Pimenta (PT/RS), Afonso Motta (PDT/CE), Rodrigo Rollemberg (PSB/DF) and Chico Alencar (PSOL/RJ). There are unfilled seats.
Senators in office: Eduardo Braga (MDB/AM), Marcelo Castro (MDB/PI), Professora Dorinha Seabra (União/TO), Giordano (Podemos/SP), Omar Aziz (PSD/AM), Cid Gomes (PSB/CE), Carlos Portinho (PL/RJ), Izalci Lucas (PL/DF), Camilo Santana (PT/CE), Paulo Paim (PT/RS) and Dr. Hiran (PP/RR). One seat for the Democratic Resistance bloc (PSB-PSD) is vacant.
Alternate senators: Confúcio Moura (MDB/RO), Jayme Campos (União/MT), Jorge Kajuru (PSB/GO), Jaime Bagattoli (PL/RO) and Beto Faro (PT/PA). There are still vacancies to be filled.
Technical report points to gap in government accounts.
The technical note is required by Resolution No. 1/2002 of Congress. It is prepared by the budgetary consultancy of the House of the rapporteur, in this case the Chamber of Deputies. The document is dated September 29 and signed by consultant Tiago Mota Avelar Almeida.
The explanatory memorandum accompanying the Provisional Measure estimates a reduction in tax revenues of R$ 1,541 billion in 2026, R$ 5,150 billion in 2027, and R$ 5,330 billion in 2028. The loss from the inspection fee would be R$ 38,4 million this year and R$ 115,2 million in each of the following two years, totaling R$ 268,8 million over the three-year period. The government states that there will be no loss related to concessions, because the amounts have already been fully paid.
However, according to the consulting firm, these estimates do not meet the level of detail required by Article 143 of the 2026 Budget Guidelines Law. This article stipulates that any proposal to reduce revenue must include the impact on the year in which it is implemented and the two following years, along with the assumptions and calculation methodology. The Statement of Reasons presents the figures, but does not explain how they were obtained.
The note also provides a legal framework for this loss. The consultant understands that the drop in revenue does not constitute a waiver of revenue under Article 14 of the Fiscal Responsibility Law. The reason is that it does not stem from a tax benefit, but rather from the prohibition of the very activity that generates the taxes. Therefore, the government does not need to present compensatory measures.
The Executive Branch informed that the 2026 effect will be incorporated into the next Primary Revenue and Expenditure Assessment Report. For 2027 and 2028, additional information will be sent to the Budget Bill.
On the expenditure side, the consultancy concludes that the Provisional Measure creates the inter-institutional oversight committee and distributes responsibilities among various bodies. However, it does not create positions or salaries and does not generate a direct obligation to spend. Thus, there is no increase in expenditure subject to the requirements of Articles 16 and 17 of the Fiscal Responsibility Law.
This analysis applies only to the original text. Amendments and any substitutes will have to undergo their own budgetary adequacy review.
The numbers that the government did not explain.
The lack of methodology adds to other inconsistencies that BNLData has been pointing out since the measure was announced.
At the launch of the Provisional Measure, the Minister of Finance, Dario Durigan, mentioned R$ 60 billion when discussing the market volume. Official data from the Finance Ministry itself, obtained by BNLData via the Access to Information Law, shows a different order of magnitude. The gross gaming revenue (GGR) of authorized operators was R$ 36,9 billion in 2025 and R$ 20,07 billion in the first half of 2026.
The explanatory memorandum also states that "studies" estimate the net transfer of resources from families to the platforms in 2025 at tens of billions of reais, without identifying which studies. The Minister of Health, Alexandre Padilha, cited the IEPS survey that calculates a social cost of R$ 38,8 billion. BNLData had already challenged this study due to methodological problems.
The government itself acknowledges the loss of revenue, but does not estimate the effect on tax collection of a potential migration of bettors to the illegal market. This market still accounts for more than 40% of bets in the country, even after 22 months of regulation. With the departure of authorized companies, illegal websites will no longer have competition in the formal market.
The amendments so far
As of the last update to the Congressional system, at 17:31 p.m. on Wednesday, 12 amendments had been submitted, all by members of parliament.
The most impactful proposal is that of Congressman Pedro Aihara (PP/MG). According to the amendment, it restricts the ban to slot games. In practice, this would preserve sports betting. The alternative is similar to the option that, according to Estadão , was presented to Lula before the decision: to prohibit only online casinos.
Representative Marcos Braz (PSDB/RJ) presented five amendments. One of them prohibits beneficiaries of federal income transfer programs, such as Bolsa Família, from gambling. This restriction only takes effect in a scenario where the market remains regulated. The others amend Article 1, add a paragraph to Article 21-A of Law No. 14.790/2023, and create new articles in the text of the Provisional Measure.
Representative Bruno Ganem (Podemos/SP) proposes that taxes, fines, and other penalties resulting from illegal gambling be allocated to the Ministry of Health. These funds would finance SUS (Brazilian public healthcare system) initiatives focused on treating gambling addiction, or ludopathy.
Representative Beto Preto (PSD/PR) filed five other amendments. The amendments repeat the one in the Provisional Measure and do not detail the content.
The committee is racing against the clock on the provisional measure.
The committee begins its work with a large part of the effects of the provisional measure already underway. The measure has been in effect since September 25th and has since prohibited new deposits on the platforms. The schedule established by the text is as follows:
⇒ Bettors have until 23:59 PM on October 5th to voluntarily withdraw their winnings.
Starting October 6th, websites and apps are expected to go offline.
⇒ Refunds must be completed by financial institutions by October 14th.
⇒ On October 25th, the authorizations are terminated, without the return of the grants or compensation.
Thus, by the time the rapporteur presents their opinion, the regulated market will have already ceased operations. Any changes approved by Congress will come after the main effects of the provisional measure have already been realized.
According to the official calendar, the Provisional Measure has until November 23rd to be voted on, a deadline that can be extended for another 60 days. From November 9th onwards, the measure will block other items on the agenda. The opinion of the joint committee is mandatory before the vote in the plenary sessions of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, as per the Supreme Court's decision in ADI 4.029.
Meanwhile, the Executive's bill criminalizing illegal gambling has reached Congress. In the public consultation on the Senate's e-Citizenship portal, the bill had garnered 464.059 votes in favor and 79.109 against in the early hours of Thursday morning.
