FactCheck: Folha article uses research on women and gambling to defend the ban, but distorts and extrapolates the data.
Folha de S.Paulo published this Monday (28), in the Trends/Debates section, the article “ What women gain from the end of bets ”. The text is signed by Beatriz Della Costa and Mariana Ribeiro, co-directors of Clarice, and Sylvia Siqueira, Democracy Manager for Latin America at the Open Society Foundations. The article defends Provisional Measure No. 1.394/2026, which prohibited fixed-odds betting in the country, based on the research “Women & Bets: the cost of online betting for Brazilian women and their families”. The research was produced by Clarice itself in partnership with Estratégia Latina and Instituto Ideia and released on August 17.
BNLData checked the article's main claims against the published research data and the text of the Provisional Measure.
The MP “prohibits online betting” — INACCURATE
MP 1.394 prohibits the operation, offering, intermediation, and advertising of fixed-odds betting lotteries, whether in physical or virtual environments. Other lottery modalities authorized by law are excluded from the measure, including those sold online. What was prohibited is a specific modality, not "online betting" in general.
"54% of Brazilian women deal with betting" — CORRECT, BUT INCOMPLETE
The number exists in the research, but it includes different groups. According to the survey, 42% of women have gambled or currently gamble online. Of this total, only 20% currently gamble, and 22% have stopped gambling. Another 12% have never gambled but say they are influenced by relatives or friends. By stating that these women "deal" with gambling, the article treats former female gamblers as part of a present-day problem.
"62% of Brazilian women support the ban, and half of the men do too" — CORRECT, BUT OUT OF CONTEXT
The percentages match: 62% among women and 50% among men. However, the article omits four relevant pieces of information:
⇒ Among the population as a whole, support for the ban is at 56%.
⇒ The survey was conducted on July 8th and 9th, before the MP was issued.
⇒ 41% of women believe that the platforms should continue operating, but without advertising.
⇒ The research itself did not recommend a total ban. Among its proposals was to gradually restrict betting modalities, starting with online casinos.
The authors are now celebrating a more radical measure than the one suggested by the study they themselves coordinated.
"The money comes back home: more than half of Brazilian women are in debt" — MISLEADING
The debt data comes from the research itself and is self-reported: 56% of women consider themselves indebted. The problem lies in the relationship suggested by the article. The reasons the female bettors cited for gambling include paying basic expenses (16%) and paying off debts (11,5%). In other words, the research indicates that indebtedness precedes gambling, and the end of the bets does not eliminate these debts.
The claim that "the money comes back home" also ignores the fact that the illegal market still accounts for more than 40% of bets in the country, even after almost two years of regulation. There is no guarantee that money withdrawn from licensed platforms will not migrate to illegal sites, which do not pay taxes, do not protect the bettor, and do not comply with responsible gambling rules.
"23% of Brazilians have witnessed scenes of aggression within their family" — DISTORTED
The original indicator is broader and weaker. According to the research, 23% of Brazilians have witnessed or know of a situation in which gambling contributed to cases of violence within families. By omitting "or know of," the article transforms third-party accounts into direct testimony.
The article also states that this number doubles among frequent gamblers. BNLData could not locate this data in any of the published research materials.
"Mental health is restored, and violence decreases" — WITHOUT EVIDENCE
The "Women & Bets" research portrays perceptions at a specific moment in time. It does not measure the effects of a ban, and the article presents no other data to support this causal relationship. It is a projection presented as a result.
Minors gambling using adult CPF numbers, "without barriers on platforms" — GENERALIZATION
The report comes from the qualitative phase of the research, which surveyed 60 people. According to the study, minors circumvent the 18-year-old rule almost always by using the CPF (Brazilian taxpayer ID) of an adult in the household, with or without consent. The research does not distinguish between authorized and illegal platforms. In the regulated market, identity verification includes facial recognition, which makes the claim of the absence of barriers, at the very least, generic.
The research itself points to another problem: 74% of women have never heard of the government's Self-Exclusion System. This data indicates a failure to publicize and monitor existing protection tools, and not an argument in favor of prohibition.
Authorship and interest
Two of the three signatories coordinated the research used as the basis for the article, which therefore serves as a defense of their own data. In the press, the study was attributed to the "Clarice studio," but the article is signed in the name of the "Clarice Institute." There is no public information about the funding of the research.
Conclusion
The article is based on research with relevant data on the impact of gambling on women's lives. However, it uses this data to support conclusions that it does not authorize: that the ban will return money to families, reduce violence, and restore mental health. The text also omits that the study itself proposed gradual restrictions, not a total ban. And it fails to address the main foreseeable consequence of the provisional measure, which is the migration of gamblers to an already large illegal market that will lack regulated competition.
