Flávio Bolsonaro surpasses Lula in betting markets for the 2026 election.
On Polymarket, a prediction market with real money bets, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) surpassed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) for the first time in the probability curve for the Brazilian presidential election. At 9:34 PM this Thursday (September 10th), Flávio registered a 56% chance of victory on the platform, compared to 46% attributed to Lula. Renan Santos, from Missão, appeared with 3%.
The reversal is unprecedented since contracts related to the Brazilian election began being traded on the site. For months, Lula maintained a comfortable lead; Flávio gradually reduced the gap throughout 2026, until overtaking the Workers' Party candidate tonight. The contract related to the Brazilian election has already generated almost 147 million dollars on the platform.
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket operates as a prediction market where users buy and sell contracts linked to the outcome of future events. Prices fluctuate according to the volume and direction of trades and are expressed as a percentage, representing the probability that the market assigns to each possible outcome. This is not an election poll: the numbers reflect bets made with real money and can move rapidly as new information or buy and sell orders enter the system. The platform itself registered intense fluctuations this Thursday, a sign of the volatility that accompanies an increasingly tight race.
Platform blocked in Brazil
Polymarket is among 27 prediction market platforms blocked by the federal government in April 2026. The action targeted sites that operated with predictions about sporting events, online games , and political, electoral, social, cultural, and entertainment topics.
The difference between market sentiment and the picture painted by conventional election polls is what makes the data relevant. Flávio Bolsonaro is not yet the favorite in public opinion surveys. At Polymarket, however, investors have started putting money on his victory for the first time—and this, in itself, repositions the perception of risk surrounding the October result.
