George Santos: Former congressman fined in the US for manipulating bets; understand the situation.
Former Republican congressman George Santos was fined $35 (approximately R$178) by the United States government for manipulating the betting market with false information about his attendance at President Donald Trump's State of the Union address to Congress. The penalty was announced by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulatory agency responsible for the betting market.
According to Globo Online, Santos deceived bettors on the Kalshi platform by posting messages on social media that led them to believe he would attend the presidential speech, scheduled for February 2026. At the same time, the former congressman, son of Brazilians, was betting on the opposite scenario, profiting from the artificial fluctuation he himself was causing.
Betting scheme
Santos created his account on Kalshi on February 11th. Between the 12th and 22nd of the same month, he bet approximately US$6.700 (R$34) on the scenario that he would attend the event. Throughout this period, he posted messages on X (formerly Twitter) hinting that he would be present, which caused the market odds to fluctuate significantly.
On February 22, Santos publicly asked his followers whether he should “wear a sober and serious suit for the State of the Union address or one with rhinestones.” The post caused the amount wagered on his attendance to skyrocket. The following day, according to the commission, Santos “abandoned his position” in the bet and pocketed US$3.400 (R$17,2).
The day before the speech, he reversed his position and began betting thousands of dollars on his own absence; he maintained the narrative on social media that he would be at the Capitol. "I'll be in the gallery," he stated in a video posted on his profile. The morning after the speech, Santos registered a gain of over US$14 (R$71,1), even though he had publicly stated that he had "watched the speech on an airport TV."
In total, the commission estimates that Santos profited more than US$17,5 (almost R$88,9) over two weeks of transactions.
Punishment and criminal record
The commission determined that Santos must return the money obtained from the bets and pay an additional US$17,5 as a "civil monetary penalty," a measure to which he reportedly agreed. Santos is also prohibited from participating in betting or the prediction market for three years.
The investigation originated within the platform itself. A spokesperson for Kalshi told The New York Times that the company investigated Santos' transactions and forwarded them to the commission, "providing the necessary evidence to warrant action against him."
Santos has a history with the American judicial system. In 2023, federal prosecutors formally charged him with fraud for omitting and falsifying information about his biography, criminal history, legal proceedings, and financial activities during the elections, which resulted in the loss of his congressional seat. In 2025, he was sentenced to seven years and three months in prison. He was detained for just over three months before being released after Trump commuted his sentence.
