Lula intensifies offensive against betting and technology as an electoral strategy.
With the election campaign about to officially begin, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has intensified his statements against online gambling and large technology companies. According to allies interviewed by Andrea Jubé in Valor, the strategy is to transform the fight against online gambling into an electoral asset, based on the perception that the issue has appeal among the low-income population.
The reasoning is based on data. An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey released at the end of April indicated that 70% of Brazilians are in favor of banning online gambling. A study by the Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp) estimates that 10,9 million Brazilians exhibit risky gambling behavior, while another 1,4 million already suffer from gambling disorders.
The idea of the Provisional Measure and the precedent of Dutra
Some of Lula's advisors even advocated that he issue a provisional measure (MP) prohibiting betting during the campaign, inspired by the decree-law with which General Eurico Gaspar Dutra banned casinos and gambling in Brazil in 1946. However, this possibility is still considered remote. Besides facing resistance in Congress during an election period, Lula is known for his cautious decision-making.
On Thursday (August 13th), the president raised his tone again. “The misfortune of gambling is that you spend your whole life gambling to pay off the losses from the first game,” he stated. In April, he had been more direct, stating that the government was debating a ban on betting companies. “If betting causes the harm we think it does, why don't we just get rid of it?” he questioned in an interview with ICL Notícias. “Today, the casino is inside your home,” he stated, noting that a measure of this magnitude depended on Congress.
Restrictions already in effect
On the same day (August 13th), the Minister of Finance, Dario Durigan, announced that approximately 5 million accounts are blocked on online betting platforms. Of this total, 800,000 were prevented from betting because they joined the Novo Desenrola program, which prohibits access to betting for one year. Another 1,2 million voluntarily opted out of the platforms, and 3 million are beneficiaries of social programs, such as Bolsa Família, who were prohibited from placing bets.
Weeks earlier, in August, Lula had approved a bill allocating up to 3% of sports betting revenue to the Federal Police, a measure approved by executive order. At the beginning of April (April 8th), he had already openly stated that the government was discussing the closure of companies in the sector.
Attacks on the market and fiscal adjustment
The second axis of the electoral strategy involves calibrating criticisms of the financial market. Allies believe that the population lacks sympathy for banks, which makes attacks on "Faria Lima" (the financial district of São Paulo) politically profitable. At the same time, it will be up to the economic team, especially Durigan, to maintain dialogue with foreign investors, at a time when capital flight has caused the Brazilian stock market to plummet.
A concrete sign in this direction was the fiscal adjustment included in the fuel bill, approved on Wednesday (August 12). The text created triggers to contain the growth of earmarked expenses. The projected savings for 2027 is R$ 10 billion.
The risk of the "blouse tax"
The electoral landscape presents a significant vulnerability for the government. An AtlasIntel poll indicates that 35,3% of respondents hold the Lula administration responsible for authorizing online gambling, even though permission for betting operations was granted during Michel Temer's administration in 2018. The law passed that year required regulation, which did not come during Jair Bolsonaro's government, creating conditions for the proliferation of illegal companies. The Lula government ended up regulating the activity, taxing the platforms and combating those operating illegally.
Another open flank is the so-called "blouse tax." In his second year in office, Lula instituted a 20% tax on international purchases of up to US$50, after pressure from retailers. Only in May 2026 did he sign an executive order abolishing the tax. Congress, however, created obstacles to the establishment of the commission to analyze the proposal, and the vote was postponed until September, when the executive order expires. The eventual return of the tax a month before the first round of elections represents the worst possible scenario for the president.
