Meta develops “Arena”, a prediction market app focused on betting.
Meta is developing a prediction markets app, internally called "Arena," that will operate independently of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. The initiative was driven by Mark Zuckerberg, the company's CEO, who assigned a small team to the project.
According to The New York Times , the app is in the experimental stage and is considered a high priority internally. The idea is to compete with Polymarket and Kalshi, the two largest prediction market platforms in the world. In this model, users bet on the outcomes of various events, from sporting competitions to political events.
The version planned by Meta would not allow betting with real money, at least initially. The system would work with points, similar to the video game model. However, the company has not ruled out the possibility of incorporating financial betting in the future, according to employees who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Market expanding rapidly
The project emerges at a time of significant growth in the sector. In 2025, Kalshi and Polymarket together moved US$50 billion in trades. By 2026, the volume had already exceeded US$130 billion, according to data cited by the American newspaper. The model attracts companies because of its ability to generate revenue from fees charged on each bet.
Other companies have also entered the competition. FanDuel and DraftKings, traditional sports betting operators, have started offering prediction markets. Gemini, a cryptocurrency exchange, and Trump Media & Technology Group, the social media company of the President of the United States, have also announced plans for similar platforms.
Meta has a significant advantage in this competition; more than 3,56 billion people access at least one of its apps daily. The strategy involves directing a portion of this audience to Arena.
History and risks of the sector
This is not the first time Meta has tested this category. In 2020, the company launched Forecast, a collaborative forecasting platform created during the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic. The app used points to encourage guesses about future events and was shut down in 2022.
The expansion of prediction markets has also brought legal problems. In April 2026, federal prosecutors in New York indicted a member of the United States Special Forces for using classified information to bet on Polymarket about a secret operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The soldier allegedly profited more than US$400 from the bets, according to prosecutors.
The case has put pressure on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency responsible for overseeing these markets. The CFTC is operating with its smallest staff in recent years, just when its responsibilities have expanded.
Meta has not commented on the project. Internal sources have warned that Arena is still under development and may not be released.
