The Ministry of Finance has issued a statement regarding predictive markets following the partnership between the brokerage firm XP and Kalshi.
The Ministry of Finance's Prize and Betting Secretariat released an official statement on Monday (March 9th) regarding prediction markets. This statement comes on the same day that the Brazilian brokerage firm XP announced a partnership with the American platform Kalshi to offer prediction contracts linked to Brazilian economic indicators. The ministry stated that it is monitoring the issue technically and is conducting preliminary studies on the segment.
The products will initially be available to Clear Corretora clients who have an international account. This operation represents Kalshi's first international expansion outside of the United States.
The platform was founded by Brazilian Luana Lopes Lara, who is among the youngest billionaires in the world. This move comes at a time of regulatory debate regarding the legal nature of these markets and their classification within the Brazilian legal framework.
Betting companies operating legally in Brazil have requested that the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting block the Polymarket and Kalshi platforms in the country. The request was made at a meeting held on February 27th with the acting secretary, Daniele Correa Cardoso. The two platforms mentioned operate in the country without specific regulation for their operations.
The Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming issued a technical statement on the subject. The organization stated that any transaction in which the consumer assumes a risk linked to the uncertain outcome of a sporting event constitutes a bet. According to the institute, this classification is independent of the terminology used, the technology employed, or the contractual structure adopted by the platforms.
In its official statement, the Secretariat for Prizes and Betting of the Ministry of Finance declared: “The Secretariat for Prizes and Betting of the Ministry of Finance monitors the issue continuously and technically, including in the international arena. The prediction market is part of the Secretariat's internal analysis agenda, with preliminary studies underway. It should be noted that, at the moment, there are no Brazilian companies formally authorized by the SPA to operate in this segment.”
The document goes on to state that "the Secretariat received a technical note from companies in the sector presenting assessments of so-called predictive markets and addresses the issue with caution, institutional responsibility, and a focus on preventing regulatory gaps, seeking to ensure consistency with the current legal framework."
Regarding the next regulatory steps, the ministry clarified: “Any further regulatory assessments on the matter depend on the completion of ongoing technical analyses and will be conducted in coordination with the relevant bodies, including the Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM), in order to analyze any potential regulatory interfaces.”
The collaboration with the Securities and Exchange Commission demonstrates the complexity of analyzing the legal nature of these operations. Any regulatory definitions will depend on the completion of ongoing technical studies.
Note from the Prizes and Betting Secretariat of the Ministry of Finance – SPA-MF:
"The Ministry of Finance's Prize and Betting Secretariat monitors the issue continuously and technically, including in the international arena. The prediction market is part of the Secretariat's internal analysis agenda, with preliminary studies underway. It should be noted that, at the moment, there are no Brazilian companies formally authorized by the SPA to operate in this segment."
The Secretariat received a technical note from companies in the sector presenting assessments of so-called predictive markets and addresses the issue with caution, institutional responsibility, and a focus on preventing regulatory gaps, seeking to ensure consistency with the current legal framework.
Any further regulatory assessments on this matter depend on the completion of ongoing technical analyses and will be conducted in conjunction with the relevant authorities, including the Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM), in order to analyze any potential regulatory interfaces.
Understand the difference between fixed-odds betting and the predictive market.
The difference between fixed-odds betting, like bets, and the predictive market lies more in the form than in the content. In the former, online betting sites act as "bookmakers." The user bets "against" the bookmaker, which calculates the payouts according to the probabilities, pays the winners, and keeps the money from the losers.
In the predictive betting market, Kalshi's original idea was to equate betting with "derivatives," financial instruments that "derive" from some asset, such as futures contracts for oil, currency, and interest rates. In this case, the platform mediates transactions between bettors, but there is no "bookmaker."
However, unlike a classic derivative, where the underlying asset is a financial or even physical value, the "backing" of predictive contracts is the bet itself. In practice, one user bets against another—the loser pays the winner.
In the US, platforms have been authorized to operate, subject to specific rules to supervise the agents, but primarily allowing betting. In Brazil, the CVM (Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission) has already authorized B3 (the Brazilian stock exchange) to launch some derivatives of this type, contract-for-contract, backed only by assets or financial values.
