The Betting Provisional Measure has a billion-dollar impact and undermines the country's legal security.
Provisional Measure 1.394/2026 mandated the termination, within 30 days, of betting authorizations granted by the federal government to 85 companies, without any provision for the return of payments or compensation. The text of the Provisional Measure also established a ten-day deadline for operators to remove websites, applications, advertising, and sponsorship signs.
In an article published by Folha de S.Paulo, Paulo Ganime , executive director of the Free Market Association, pointed out that the rupture generated a problem of legal certainty: the State charged R$ 30 million from each company as a condition to operate betting for five years, collected R$ 2,55 billion in 85 concessions and now terminated these authorizations before the deadline without any compensation.
The regulated market began operating under federal rules in January 2025. The timeframe and cost of authorizations guided investments, hiring, and commitments to suppliers throughout that period.
Impact on businesses and public revenue
The financial effects have already appeared in the projections of international companies listed on the stock exchange. Flutter, traded on the New York Stock Exchange, informed the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States) that the shutdown in Brazil until the end of 2026 would reduce its revenue by approximately US$70 million (R$351,6 million) and its adjusted EBITDA by US$20 million (R$100,2 million). Entain, listed in London and controlling company of Sportingbet, maintained its earnings projection range, but now expects performance closer to the lower end.
For Brazil, the consequences could include reduced purchases of services, contracts, and investments by international groups that redistribute resources among countries. The government projects a shortfall of R$ 6,8 billion by 2027 from the sector-specific tax and inspection fee alone.
Underground activities and debate in Congress.
One day after the MP was issued, this Thursday (September 26), monitoring by ANJL (National Association of Games and Lotteries) identified 1.689 new illegal addresses. This data indicates that a clandestine offering was ready to absorb the remaining demand. If some consumers continue betting outside the regulated environment, the country may lose revenue and protection mechanisms without eliminating the damage that motivated the prohibition.
Ganime argued that a consistent response would require addressing abusive advertising, restricting banking transactions to illegal operators, and expanding addiction prevention and treatment, in addition to presenting evidence on the effectiveness of these actions. The article assigns to Congress the role of examining whether the breakup is necessary and proportionate, whether the handling of concessions respects the commitments made by the State, and whether the deadlines allow for an effective transition.
