On social media, the Betting Provisional Measure is criticized more for the government's inconsistency than for the prohibition itself.
A survey accessed by BNLData, produced by Matheus Vidal and titled 'Report – Social Thermometer MP of Bets', based on over 4 comments published on Instagram and X regarding President Lula's announcement of a provisional measure to prohibit online betting, shows that the reaction on social media is overwhelmingly critical. Among the comments that expressed an opinion on a possible provisional measure, 70,6% were against it. However, this number needs to be interpreted with caution. It does not indicate that the measure is unpopular.
The analysis scanned the comments on 12 posts about the announcement, seven on Instagram and five on X, and classified each comment. The criterion separated two things that often appear mixed together: opinions about betting and opinions about the Provisional Measure. A user may reject the betting market and still criticize the measure for considering it electioneering or for generating legal uncertainty.
That's precisely where the most revealing finding lies. Among the classified comments about the Provisional Measure, 76,8% did not express any position on betting. The rejection captured is, therefore, predominantly political. The comments speak of incoherence, opportunism, and distrust in the government, and not of opposition to the prohibition itself.
The most liked dissenting comments confirm this pattern. At the top are questions like "Wait, wasn't he the one who regulated betting?" (1.677 likes) and "He himself legalized it... And now he wants to pull an electioneering stunt" (1.474). None of them defend betting houses. On the favorable side, the most liked comments celebrate the end of betting and associate the measure with the campaign ("Out with betting 🙌 Go Lula"). One of them includes a personal account: the author says that his father is addicted and that the measure will at least make access more difficult. Probably, the problematic gambler is unaware of the self-exclusion platform of the Prizes and Betting Secretariat of the Ministry of Finance.
Each post, a result.
The variation between publications is the main methodological warning. Support for the Provisional Measure was 64,7% in one Instagram post and only 12,4% in another on the same network. In X, the favorable percentages ranged between 14,3% and 25%. Profile, audience, and framing of each publication seem to determine a large part of the result.
The sample is also concentrated. Two Instagram posts, with 43,2% and 12,4% support, account for approximately 58% of the classified comments. There are also other biases typical of this type of data collection. Commenters self-select, the same user may appear multiple times, and people connected to the sector may have mobilized. Therefore, the confidence intervals calculated for each post give an appearance of precision that the non-probabilistic sample, lacking independent observations, does not support.
There is a more basic limitation: the text of the provisional measure is not yet known. The comments react to the president's speech and the way each profile presented it, not to the content of the measure itself.
Networks and research do not contradict each other.
The result coexists without conflict with the Atlas/Bloomberg survey released this Wednesday (23), according to which 75% of Brazilians support the ban on betting, 17% are against and 8% say they are neutral. The two measurements capture different phenomena. The survey measures opinion on the ban in a sample of the population. The survey on social networks measures the tone of the conversation between users engaged with 12 specific publications.
The picture that emerges is one of a highly mobilized critical narrative, which questions less the end of betting itself and more the consistency of those who regulated the sector and now propose banning it just days before the election. For the government, this shows that the risk posed by the provisional measure on social media does not come from those who defend betting, but from those who distrust the change of position.
Exclusive
Automated collection of comments from 12 posts (Instagram and X) about the announcement of the Provisional Measure, carried out in the early morning of September 24, 2026. There were 4.122 comments in total, of which 2.574 were classified according to their position on the Provisional Measure. The sample is not probabilistic and does not allow inferences about the population.
Report – Bets MP Social Thermometer
