The predicted collapse of Brazilian football: when the government could become the enemy of the game.

Brazilian football, the country's greatest cultural and emotional expression, is on the verge of a silent, and perhaps irreversible, collapse.

For decades, our clubs have struggled to escape financial hardship, seeking sustainable models amidst economic instability and a history of mismanagement.

In recent years, however, we have seen a real transformation. The influx of new revenue, driven by the professionalization of the sector and sponsorship from sports betting companies, coupled with some successful SAF (Sociedade Anônima do Futebol - Football Corporation) processes, has rekindled hopes for stability. But all of this may be about to crumble in the face of threats of new advertising restrictions and increased tax burdens on the betting sector in the country.

The scenario is one of imminent chaos. The mere implementation of these measures will mean the financial asphyxiation of an entire ecosystem that currently sustains not only clubs, but also journalists, platforms, coaches, youth athletes, and hundreds of small businesses linked to the football industry. Without the revenue from betting, which today represents the majority of the budgets of the vast majority of clubs, they will once again be living on the edge: dismantled squads, delayed salaries, and accumulating debts.

The hard-won progress, such as transparency in management, professionalization, and the internationalization of brands, may be numbered within months.

The sector will have to find a new segment to take on these sponsorships. Who knows, we might see a return to murky public sponsorships, like those of CAIXA in the 90s, which suffered political pressure to sponsor team A or team B.

And the fans, always passionate and demanding, will continue to demand results. But how can they compete when the fuel for investment is cut? How can they compete for players, maintain infrastructure, or even participate in continental tournaments with dignity, if the main source of revenue is eliminated by a government model that sees the sector only as an opportunity to raise more money, and not as an economic and social engine?

In recent years, several teams have performed well in international competitions. The Club World Cup, held this year, reflects this. Flamengo, Botafogo, Fluminense, and Palmeiras competed against European clubs. They didn't reach the final, but they brought joy to their fans. And what did all the Brazilian clubs have in common? They are all sponsored by betting companies.

The error lies in vision and, primarily, in economic logic. By stifling the regulated market with disproportionate taxes and advertising barriers, the government is not protecting anyone. In practice, it is pushing gamblers into the underworld of illegal platforms, where there is no control, security, or tax revenue. The negative externalities will only grow: tax evasion, money laundering, loss of formal jobs, and the weakening of a segment that had been consolidating itself as one of the pillars of national entertainment.

It's always worth remembering that public statements from the SPA – the Prizes and Betting Secretariat – indicate the existence of over 18 illegal websites that have already been blocked, a process that is a real waste of time. It's always good to emphasize that there are 18 illegal sites versus 180 legal ones, meaning 99% versus 1%.

The discourse about protecting health is vague. Experts indicate that protection comes from regulation, attention, scrutiny, and oversight. And this can only be achieved with a regulated market. Only it has the power to treat the bettor with due attention. If there are externalities, they need to be mitigated. Pretending they don't exist is the main path to disaster. Illegal gambling operators have no concern whatsoever for bettors. They just want to make a profit. That's all. Those operating in the regulated market must comply with rules, perform KYC verification during registration, and only accept deposits if the PIX (Brazilian instant payment system) is made using the same CPF (Brazilian individual taxpayer registration number) as the bettor. And the illegal market? Just enter an email address (which doesn't even need to be real) to start betting.

Did you notice the difference? Can you understand where the problem lies?

The truth is harsh, but simple: without tax balance, there is no sustainable future. The government needs to understand that football (and the betting that surrounds it) are not enemies to be punished, but strategic partners in an economic development project. Destroying this mechanism is tantamount to decreeing the collapse of one of the few sectors that still unite the country around a common passion.

Another sector could take on the leading role that betting has taken in recent years in relation to football, but if this takes too long, chaos will ensue. And then, where will the resources come from next year to ensure the sustainability of football if serious and regulated companies in the market are forced to reduce their investments or even suspend their operations?

If these measures move forward, Brazilian football will not fall due to a lack of talent, but due to a lack of vision.

Just like a baby learning to walk on its own two feet, the betting industry needs adjustments. Greater care is needed regarding responsible gambling, attention to health issues, etc. But this is natural for an industry that has only been regulated for 10 months. Like a baby learning to walk: if it falls, it needs to get up and try again. A baby won't learn to walk on its own through correction. It needs education, teaching, attention, care…

And when the final whistle blows, the scoreboard of governmental irresponsibility will show what everyone already knows, but few dare to say: it was the State that scored the own goal.

(*) Amilton Noble is a lottery specialist and has worked in the industry for over 30 years.