PoderData/Aya poll: 43% see ban on betting as favorable to Lula.

A PoderData/Aya poll released this Saturday (October 3rd) indicates that 43% of Brazilian voters believe the ban on betting favors President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's (PT) campaign. For 31%, the measure harms the PT candidate in his reelection bid. The first round of the general elections takes place this Sunday (October 4th).

The survey was conducted by Poder360 in partnership with Aya Bancah . The ban on betting entered the electoral debate after Lula signed, on September 25th, a provisional measure prohibiting online betting in Brazil. The MP covers "Tigrinho," online casinos, and sports betting platforms. The text came into effect upon publication but still depends on Congressional approval.

On Thursday (October 2nd), Lula stated that Bolsonarism “wants the people indebted by bets, I don’t want that”. The political field mentioned by the president refers to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), his main opponent in the electoral race.

Variation by voting profile

Perceptions about the impact of the measure on the campaign vary according to electoral preference. Among the 42% who declared they would vote for Lula in the first round, 58% believe the ban benefits the president, according to the PoderData/Aya survey. Another 21% believe it harms the Workers' Party candidate, and 21% did not know how to answer.

Among Flávio Bolsonaro's voters, the result is reversed. In this group, 43% believe the ban hinders Lula, while 30% consider it beneficial. Those who did not know how to answer total 28%.

In the total sample, 26% of respondents were unable to assess the electoral effect of the measure.

Approval of the ban

In addition to the electoral impact, the study also measured approval of the measure itself. Among those interviewed, 52% are in favor of a total ban on betting in the country, while 31% are against it. Those who did not know how to answer represent 18%, according to data from PoderData/Aya.

The survey collected data between September 30 and October 2, 2026, through calls to cell phones and landlines. 4.000 interviews were conducted in 786 municipalities across the 27 states of Brazil. The margin of error is 1,5 percentage points, with a 95% confidence interval. The survey is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-03519/2026.