Polymarket maintains bets on Brazilian elections despite ban and block.
Polymarket, a New York-based prediction market platform, maintains at least 40 betting markets on the 2026 Brazilian elections, despite being banned from operating in the country since April. The National Monetary Council (CMN) ordered the platform blocked for violating Brazilian law.
On Thursday (September 10th), Estadão identified open negotiations on the website for the presidential, state government, and Federal Senate races. The platform uses cryptocurrencies in transactions and allows users to place bets on hundreds of events around the world.
The Ministry of Finance stated that it is monitoring platforms that offer illegal gambling in Brazil. The ministry has already sent over 68 websites for blocking. "The fight against the illegal market is continuous, since irregular operators can use different mechanisms to try to circumvent access restrictions," the ministry said. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) declined to comment on the matter. Polymarket was also contacted but did not respond.
Access via VPN
The CMN's ban does not completely prevent Brazilian bettors from accessing the platform. Tools that mask the origin of the connection, VPNs, allow them to bypass the block. The use of VPNs themselves is not prohibited by Brazilian law.
“It’s a neutral tool that allows for data privacy and security,” said Taís Gasparian, a lawyer specializing in digital law. The expert emphasizes, however, that using the tool to circumvent restrictions such as those imposed by the CMN (National Monetary Council) constitutes an illegal act.
According to Gasparian, gamblers who use the tool to access Polymarket may be held liable in civil, tax, and criminal courts. Winnings obtained may also be seized by the courts. The VPN provider is obligated to maintain access logs according to the Brazilian Internet Civil Framework, which allows for user identification. "A Brazilian court order directed at a VPN company can request the data, which allows for user identification," said the lawyer.
In the field of payments, deposits via Pix on Polymarket are not available in Brazil even with the use of a VPN. Cryptocurrencies, however, represent another way to circumvent the barriers to payment methods.
Elections in Brazil as an object of betting.
The platform offers prediction markets for the electoral races in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Pernambuco, Bahia, and 15 other states. The list also includes bets on candidates' attendance at televised debates and on the potential removal of Minister Alexandre de Moraes from the Supreme Federal Court (STF).
Since Polymarket is not based in the country, the CMN resolution has limited scope over its operations. Cases like this require international cooperation agreements for effective measures to be adopted, which also applies to the dissemination of misleading content among bettors.
In the platform's comments section, profiles with fictitious names both bet on and comment on the Brazilian political and electoral landscape. The majority show support for Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and his son Flávio, a senator and presidential candidate from the same party. Other profiles indicate they will vote for Renan Santos, the candidate from Missão.
The exchange of false or distorted information is recurrent in this environment. One comment claims that the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) approved the candidacy of Pablo Marçal (PRTB), who was declared ineligible in August; the decision on the case in the Electoral Court was scheduled for this Friday (September 11th). Another anonymous profile accuses research institutes of manipulating public opinion.
Gasparian believes there is little room for intervention by the Brazilian justice system in this context. "I don't think a request to remove comments about the Brazilian electoral process is possible, nor does it seem there is enough time for that," the lawyer stated.
