"Banning betting exacerbates the problem and could be electoral suicide for Lula"
The federal government is considering issuing a provisional measure to prohibit the operation of sports betting sites in Brazil, in the midst of the 2026 election campaign. According to Mauro Cezar Pereira in UOL Esporte, this initiative does not represent an improvement to Law No. 14.790/2023, which regulated the sector, but rather an immediate retreat designed with the election calendar in mind, and with Congress still far from endorsing the change.
The fiscal impact is immediate. From January to July 2026, the Federal Revenue Service collected R$ 8,7 billion from gambling and betting. At the current rate, the year could end with R$ 16 billion. A ban by provisional measure would mean giving up this revenue, facing lawsuits from companies that paid operating licenses, and potentially having to refund part of the amounts already collected.
Clubs in the line of fire
Brazilian football is directly on the path to this measure. Master sponsorships from betting companies in Série A total around R$ 1 billion per season. In the first half of 2025, the legal allocations foreseen in article 30 of Law nº 13.756/2018, equivalent to more than 8% of the GGR (gross gaming revenue), had already exceeded R$ 1,6 billion distributed among clubs, athletes, and the sports system. In an official statement released this Wednesday (September 16th), football entities warned that fixed-odds betting has become one of the main commercial sources for the sector.
For the fans, the argument won't come across as a financial analysis. The prevailing narrative in the stands will be that the government withdrew its sponsors from the clubs overnight, deepening their debt. In an election year, this kind of friction isn't limited to the sports sector.
The Palace's calculation
Government sources consulted by the journalist after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva received internal warnings indicate that Lula himself assessed the political risk in a meeting with entities and movements and concluded that a provisional measure in those terms would have little chance in Congress. On Tuesday (September 15), he was informed that fan groups could turn against the government if clubs suffer financial losses as a result of the measure. The Legislature had already blocked stricter control initiatives previously.
The Presidential Palace, therefore, is not acting blindly. It is calculating whether the anti-betting move improves opinion polls and whether Congress can withstand pressure from the sector. An immediate-effect Provisional Measure serves this timeline. It does not serve the oversight that Law No. 14.790/2023 already provides for and which the government has not fully implemented.
Illegal market emerges strengthened
The biggest beneficiary of a ban on authorized operators would be the black market. Traffic tools used by the sector indicate that around 50% of Brazilian access is already directed to unauthorized platforms. Social media estimates point to an even larger share. The range between 50% and 65% reflects a structural asymmetry: the legal platform requires a CPF (Brazilian taxpayer ID), imposes limits, and controls advertising; the clandestine one accepts Pix (Brazilian instant payment system) and WhatsApp without identity verification.
These websites do not apply the controls that the law requires of regulated operators. Gamblers participating in social programs such as Bolsa Família and Desenrola, as well as minors, are able to create accounts without any barrier. The government takes down irregular domains, but the URLs change in minutes. One of the sites was removed at 10 am on Thursday (September 17th) and was back in less than 15 minutes, with IP access blocked to make identification more difficult.
Authorized operators tried to form a commission and go to Brasília to explain the problem, but they were not received. The government's interlocutor was the anti-bet movement, whose diagnosis does not encompass the sites that do not pay taxes, do not generate jobs in Brazil, and continue to operate in the national market. If the Provisional Measure goes ahead, these platforms will not close; on the contrary, they may gain ground, as they operate with higher margins because they do not have expenses related to sponsorship, advertising, or regulatory structure.
Scheduled meeting with the sector
Rumors are circulating in the market that Lula is expected to meet with representatives of legalized betting companies next week, after the 81st UN General Assembly in New York. The meeting would take place upon the president's return to Brazil.
The practical effect of a potential ban is clear. If 62% of bettors already use platforms outside the reach of the State, a provisional measure doesn't shut down the market: it pushes the rest down the same path. Revenue falls, sponsorship disappears, and sites without CPF (Brazilian taxpayer ID) registration gain users. Congress, if it maintains consistency with its previous positions, could block or weaken the measure, leaving the government with the political cost of the announcement without the benefit of its implementation.
