Banning betting won't end gambling and could push the market underground, experts say.
The advancement of proposals to restrict online betting opens a new stage in the debate about the regulated Brazilian market. On September 2nd, the Senate's Science and Technology Committee approved Bill 2.470/2026, which expands limitations on advertising and sponsorship of betting sites, establishes risk criteria for games, and increases the obligations of operators.
The matter will proceed to the Social Affairs Committee, but it has also received an urgent request for analysis by the Plenary. Meanwhile, members of the government have begun discussing more drastic measures against online gambling, including the possibility of prohibiting certain types of bets.
According to José Frederico Cimino Manssur, partner at Natal & Manssur Advogados and specialist in the Regulation of Sports Betting and Online Gaming, a potential ban would not eliminate demand and could lead some players to illegal platforms, outside the reach of the rules and oversight.
"Revoking the law would be a seemingly simpler and perhaps more popular solution, but it would harm the sector, jobs, and tax revenue, without preventing the continuation of gambling on the black market," he says.
The lawyer considers the tightening of consumer protection rules legitimate, especially in the field of advertising. The text approved by the Science and Technology Committee prohibits the commercial promotion of betting in practically all media and restricts sports, cultural, and social sponsorships. The proposal maintains only institutional communications on the authorized operators' own channels.
Manssur argues that regulations should prevent promises of guaranteed results, the presentation of betting as an alternative source of income, and the direct manipulation of the public by influencers and commentators.
“There is no such thing as a sure bet or an impossible bet to lose. It is also not appropriate for an influencer or commentator to use the analysis of a match to directly induce the public to bet on a particular outcome,” he says.
Taxation could jeopardize the formalization of the sector.
The tightening of regulations comes as betting companies also prepare for the effects of tax reform. Starting in 2027, the sector will be subject to the Selective Tax, the rate of which is yet to be defined. Unlike products currently taxed by the IPI (Tax on Industrialized Products), for betting operators the new tax will represent an additional burden, on top of the transition to the IBS (Tax on Goods and Services) and CBS (Tax on Goods and Services).
“The government may be going against the formalization process that it itself initiated. By making regular operations increasingly difficult and expensive, it opens the door to illegality, because the game isn't going to end,” says Carlos Crosara, a specialist in Tax Law from PUC-SP, with a master's degree and currently pursuing a doctorate in Tax Law from USP, and a lawyer at Natal & Manssur Advogados.
According to Manssur, the existence of clear rules makes it possible to identify authorized companies, monitor their practices, combat fraud, and establish responsibilities in their relationships with bettors. Regulation also provides parameters for the Judiciary to differentiate between platform failures and irregular conduct or individual user decisions.
"The game needs to be presented as entertainment, not as an investment, a source of income, or a path to becoming a millionaire," he concludes.
Sources: José Frederico Cimino Manssur , partner at the law firm Natal & Manssur Advogados, postgraduate in Corporate, Succession and Tax Strategies from FGV/GVLAW, specialist in Contracts from PUC/SP – COGEA and in Regulation of Sports Betting and Online Games; and Carlos Crosara , specialist in Tax Law from PUC-SP, master's and doctoral candidate in Tax Law from USP and lawyer at Natal & Manssur Advogados.
