Online betting in Brazil will continue to grow, according to Bradesco BBI.
The online sports betting market in Brazil is expected to maintain double-digit growth in the coming years, even after the anticipated slowdown in 2026. This projection comes from Bradesco BBI, which mapped the sector in Latin America and concluded that the country still has ample room for expansion before any saturation.
The diagnosis was published by the Brazil Journal . According to the bank, Brazil's gross gaming revenue (GGR) is projected to increase by 33% in 2025, reaching US$17 billion, driven by the liberalization of the online betting market. Before regulation, Bradesco estimated Brazil's GGR at US$13 billion.
For 2026, the bank projects more moderate growth of 11%, raising GGR to approximately US$20 billion. Even with this slowdown, Bradesco BBI sees room for double-digit rates in the following years.
Three pillars of growth
The bank points to three factors as key to the sustained expansion of the sector. The Brazilian user base is still small compared to the rest of the region; regulation, which came into effect in early 2025, acted as a catalyst by increasing formalization and confidence in the market; and the high level of digital adoption in the country reinforces the structure for growth. Only 22% of Brazilian adults use betting platforms, a percentage below that recorded in markets considered more mature.
The penetration argument is the most technically robust; with just over one in five adults betting, there is significant structural room for growth before any saturation.
Impact on retail and risk of indebtedness.
The growth of betting, however, has been cited as a factor putting pressure on other sectors. Lojas Renner, Magazine Luiza, Casas Bahia, Assaí, GPA, Arcos Dorados, and SmartFit cited the segment's growth as one of the reasons for weak results, arguing that the flow of resources to betting reduces the disposable income of low-income consumers.
The Bradesco BBI report puts this interpretation into perspective. According to the analysts, the debt caused by betting is still a marginal portfolio and financial behavior risk, not constituting a large-scale macroeconomic issue. In the bank's assessment, the sector is already large enough to weigh on more discretionary spending, but not yet large enough to significantly affect the average consumer.
The report itself, however, cautions that this situation could worsen. With 82% of Brazilian families carrying some type of debt and almost 30% of the family budget committed to debt repayment, a deepening of indebtedness would directly impact the discretionary demand that sustains the growth of gambling.
The impact of betting on the family budget.
The report's data shows the scale the sector has already reached in the daily financial lives of families. Betting platforms account for the equivalent of 3,4% of net retail sales in Brazil, compared to 2,7% in 2023; projections indicate that this percentage will reach 3,5% in 2026. In e-commerce, online betting revenue already represents 12,3% of the market, more than double the 8,3% recorded in 2023.
In a family budget, the average net spending of those who bet on online platforms reaches R$ 122 per month, equivalent to 7,5% of the 2026 minimum wage. When all forms of betting are included, among them the jogo do bicho (illegal lottery) and unregulated platforms, each responsible for 19% of the country's total GGR (Gross Gaming Revenue), this total can jump to 15% of the minimum wage.
The profile of Brazilian bettors is predominantly male (68%), with almost half of this group being under 30 years old. Users who utilize four or more betting platforms represent 25% of the total, while 48% are concentrated on a single site, indicating that a minority of highly active bettors concentrate a significant portion of the sector's spending.
Bradesco BBI
Bradesco BBI is the investment bank of the Bradesco Organization, specializing in corporate financial advisory, capital markets, and large structured transactions.
