Lula's campaign backtracks on attacks against bets after strategic error in speech.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's (PT) campaign significantly reduced mentions of bets in speeches and advertisements after the first round of the presidential elections. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) finished the first stage of the race with a 2 million vote advantage.

The strategic retreat was mapped by Folha de S.Paulo based on an analysis of 46 videos published on Lula's YouTube channel up to October 15th. The change in tone reveals the political cost of a gamble that the government itself acknowledges was wrong: the ban on online betting platforms mobilized supporters of football clubs, recreational bettors, workers in the sector, and digital influencers—groups that were not properly considered in the electoral calculations.

The average number of mentions of the term "bets" per video dropped from 11 during the first round of the campaign to four in the runoff election. The topic was present in all videos on the presidential channel between September 1st and October 4th, the date of the first round of voting. In the second round, Lula avoided the subject on two occasions, including during the debate on TV Band broadcast this Sunday (October 18th).

Janja and the miscalculation

The magnitude of the mistake was exposed by the First Lady herself. According to SBT News, in a video also seen by Folha de S.Paulo, Janja da Silva stated, in tears, that the end of the betting system had not had the electoral impact expected by the government. She declared that she had hoped for a first-round victory because of the initiative.

Internal data suggested a basis for optimism. Research by Quaest indicated that 64% of respondents were aware of the end of the regulated betting market, and only 8% of that public disapproved of the government's decision. However, the extent to which this approval translated into votes remained unclear.

Political scientist Carolina de Paula, from the Institute of Social and Political Studies of the State of Rio de Janeiro (IESP-UERJ), explains that campaigns continuously calibrate their themes. “These metrics help, as does press coverage, which is also a parameter for the campaign,” she said. For Carolina, the retreat doesn't represent failure: “The topic loses strength and becomes exhausted. People also stop searching for it on social media.”

Football, clubs and fans all in one account.

The government underestimated the reaction from the football world. Clubs organized a campaign in defense of betting sites under the slogan "end of football," and the criticism quickly reached the stands. On October 11th, Flamengo fans chanted insults against Lula after the team's 1-0 victory over Fluminense in the derby.

Flamengo's president, Luiz Eduardo Baptista, known as Bap, stated in an interview with Poder360 on September 25th that he "had nothing to learn from Lula" regarding the clubs' dependence on betting revenue.

On October 1st, the last time he addressed the topic with attention, Lula suggested that clubs adopt the business model foreseen in the Law of SAFs (public limited football companies). The legislation sanctioned by the current government imposes transparency rules on sports companies and, at the same time, offers greater legal security. Since that date, the subject has been sidelined in presidential speeches. In his last mention of the clubs, on October 8th, Lula was laconic: “Do you remember that three decades ago everyone only talked about becoming a company? Now you can become a company; why aren't you doing it?”

On the day he signed the provisional measure banning online betting, September 25th, the president used football examples: “Flamengo won the championship in '81 without betting. São Paulo won three championships without betting. Grêmio won the championship without betting. Corinthians won the championship without betting. After betting, who won?” Before concluding, he added: “I didn't mention Palmeiras here because they didn't win anything.”

New focus: 6x1 scale and attacks on Flávio

In the second round, the Workers' Party campaign redirected its narrative. The most frequently cited words in radio spots became "change," "scale," and "Flávio." The president increased references to the package of measures that includes ending the 6-day-on, 1-day work schedule and forgiving debts for individual micro-entrepreneurs.

After Flávio Bolsonaro announced that he would vote in favor of the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) that reduces the workload, the PT campaign began calling him "two-faced." When the offensive intensified, Lula's presence in the advertisements was replaced by an anonymous announcer.

Flávio's campaign did not respond to contacts made by email and WhatsApp at 1 am on Friday (October 16). Regarding the change of position after visiting his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, the PL candidate stated that it was an alignment with the wishes of the majority of the population. Lula's campaign also did not respond to emails sent by the reporter since 1 pm on Friday (October 16).

Flávio's campaign, in turn, began to call the government the "father of the little tiger," in reference to the inclusion of online slot machines in the regulations approved by Congress at the end of 2023. This type of gambling was incorporated into the text at the proposal of the rapporteur, Senator Angelo Coronel (Republicanos), and subsequently accepted by the Treasury, then under the leadership of Fernando Haddad (PT).

References to gambling still persist in the president's speeches during political events. To a group of supporters gathered in Natal, Lula stated: "This is the march of those who no longer want gambling stealing from the poor people of this country."

In his speeches, Lula reiterates that online gambling was sanctioned by former president Michel Temer (MDB) at the end of 2018, with the obligation of regulation within the following four years, and that the Bolsonaro government failed to comply with this requirement. Since October 25th, online gambling has been prohibited throughout the country.

Editorial: Even Folha confirms: Lula abandons the banner of banning betting in the 2nd round.