2026 World Cup: Betting houses register losses in the group stage.

The group stage of the 2026 World Cup generated significant losses for sports betting companies. A series of goals by favorite players and victories by popular teams reversed the sector's usual logic, which tends to profit when results contradict bettors' expectations.

DraftKings, one of the world's largest online betting companies, lost up to US$50 million (R$260 million) in the group stage of the tournament, according to estimates by Bank of America. The loss was reported by the Financial Times.

Multiple bets, called parlays in the United States and accumulators in the United Kingdom, were at the heart of the highest payouts. The combination of goals from Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland, and Kylian Mbappé was one of the most popular multiple bets. All three players scored two goals each during the week of Tuesday (June 25th), according to analysis by Bank of America. Bettors who predicted that all three would score at least two goals each received especially high returns; Bank of America estimated the probability of this outcome at around 1%.

Multiple bets are generally profitable for bookmakers because they require all predictions in the sequence to come true. When this happens, however, the payouts can be proportionally high.

Popular selections as a risk factor

The performance of selections from major betting markets also weighed on the companies' balance sheets. The strong performance in the United States so far has been described by Julie Hoover, an analyst at Bank of America, as "the biggest liability" for most bookmakers in America.

Flutter, DraftKings' main rival and owner of the Paddy Power, Sky Bet, and FanDuel brands, recorded losses following England's 4-2 victory over Croatia, a match that attracted the highest volume of bets in the group stage. The company's British clients profited €4,1 million from the game. Flutter reported, however, that the 0-0 draw between England and Ghana "more than balanced the books."

Jordan Bender, an analyst at Citizens bank, stated that bookmakers, brokers, and prediction markets were "all converging to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on customer acquisition" during the tournament. Companies invested in live betting and promotions to attract new users, while also competing against prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Long-term outlook

Chad Beynon, an analyst at Macquarie, assessed that the tournament would likely not be "a revenue driver in the short term," but considered that companies could still benefit from the increased brand recognition to cross-sell with higher-margin products, such as online casinos.

Peter Jackson, CEO of Flutter, told the Financial Times in May that his company benefited from the 2022 World Cup even after "losing a lot of money" with Argentina's victory over France in the final on penalties. "Even now, when I think about the impact that competition had on us, I don't think about the money we lost, because, in fact, we provided great entertainment," he stated.

DraftKings CEO Jason Robins had previously told the Financial Times that the World Cup would be "a huge focal point for customer acquisition." The company declined to comment on the loss estimates released by Bank of America.