João Fonseca is the favorite to win a historic title at home in the Rio Open, according to Betnacional.

Brazilian João Fonseca is the favorite to win the Rio Open, which runs until February 22nd at the Jockey Club Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro. The 19-year-old rising star, currently ranked 38th in the world, is the favorite according to Betnacional, the tournament's official sponsor, which has brought the sport to the clay courts of Rio since 2014.

Fonseca has an 18% chance of winning the trophy in his home country, according to... BetnationalThe triumph would be his second ATP 500 title. Last October, the tennis player won the ATP Basel tournament in Switzerland, becoming the first Brazilian to win an ATP 500 since the category was created in 2009. Events of this status award 500 points to the champion in the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) ranking.

The Brazilian's biggest rival is Francisco Cerundolo, who has a 15% chance of winning the championship. Rio OpenAccording to Betnacional. Nineteenth in the ranking, the 27-year-old Argentine arrives with confidence after winning the ATP Buenos Aires this Sunday (15). The final was against Italian Luciano Darderi, 21st in the ranking, who is third on the list of favorites for the title in the capital of Rio de Janeiro, with 10%.

The current Rio Open champion is fourth in the pack: Argentinian Sebastian Baez defends his title with a 9% implied probability of winning his second consecutive championship. Baez is ranked 32nd in the world.

Other countrymen of Baez, Tomás Martin Etcheverry and Camilo Ugo Carabelli follow, with an 8% chance of winning the Rio Open. The Betnacional list continues with three Europeans: Croatian Dino Prizmic (6%), Italian Matteo Berrettini (6%), and Frenchman Alexandre Muller (5%). Chilean Alejandro Tabilo closes the top 10 with 3%.

Below are the 15 tennis players with the best chances of winning the 2026 Rio Open:

1. João Fonseca – 18% chance of winning the Rio Open (odds of 5)
2. Francisco Cerundolo – 15% (odd of 6)
3. Luciano Darderi – 10% (odds of 8.45)
4. Sebastian Baez – 9% (odds of 9.45)
5. Tomás Martin Etcheverry – 8% (odd of 11)
6. Camilo Ugo Carabelli – 8% (odd of 11)
7. Dino Prizmic – 6% (odds of 14.90)
8. Matteo Berrettini – 6% (odds of 14.90)
9. Alexandre Muller – 5% (odds of 16.90)
10. Alejandro Tabilo – 3% (odds of 25.90)
11. Francisco Comesana – 3% (odd of 25.90)
12. Daniel Altmaier – 3% (odds of 28.90)
13. Vit Kopriva – 3% (odds of 28.90)
14. Dusan Lajovic – 2% (odds of 34)
15. Other tennis players combined – 1%

Super odds

In addition to the market for the winner of the Rio Open and for the tournament matches, Betnacional also offers so-called super odds, which boost the bettor's return with a bonus on top of the traditional odds set by the bookmaker. For example, if Gustavo Heide beats Kopriva and Fonseca beats Yannick Hanfmann, the odds will be 20 instead of 17.43 (for every real bet, if the bet is successful, R$17,43).

Similarly, if Baez, Fonseca, Cerundolo, and Carabelli win 2-0 in the round of 32, bettors who have predicted that all four players will win without losing a set will receive odds of 20, compared to the 15 stipulated by Betnacional before the bonus. There are two other super odds active on the Betnacional platform, which will continue to offer bonuses during the remaining stages of the tournament.

Betnacional invites sports fans to participate in activations at the brand's booth at the Rio Open, which will be active throughout the nine days of the tournament and full of interactive activities.

About Betnacional

Betnacional, a sports betting platform that is part of Flutter Brazil, has been authorized to operate in the country with fixed-odds betting since January 2025, according to SPA/MF Ordinance No. 2.092/24. Reinforcing its positioning as "the bet of Brazilians," the brand has invested heavily in promoting national culture. It sponsors some of the biggest events and programs in the country, such as the Rio Open. Betnacional also has prominent ambassadors, such as soccer star Vini Jr., singer Nattan, and the iconic journalist Galvão Bueno, a reference in Brazilian sports commentary. The presence of the "bet of Brazilians" is significant in sports, with strong visibility in stadiums and advertising placements in various championships through BRAX. Furthermore, it is an official sponsor of Futebol 2026 on Rede Globo, the main sponsor of Sport Club do Recife and Cruzeiro Esporte Clube, and will be partnering with CazéTV for the broadcast of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Betnacional encourages the sustainable growth of the betting sector in Brazil and reinforces its commitment to responsible gambling through a solid partnership with the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gambling (IBJR).