Predictive betting market arrives in Brazil with authorization from the CVM (Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission) for betting on events.

The Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) has given the green light to the first products in the Brazilian predictive market, which will be launched by B3 in the coming months. The announcement was made this Wednesday (February 18th) in a report by VALOR and will allow bets on the outcomes of future events, initially restricted to professional investors with assets exceeding R$ 10 million in financial investments.

B3 plans to make the first derivatives in the predictive market available in the first quarter of 2026. The initial products will include binary options for the dollar, Ibovespa, and bitcoin, with choices limited to "yes" or "no" for certain scenarios.

“The world of derivatives is increasingly approaching the frontier of the predictive market,” stated Gilson Finkelsztain, president of B3, in an interview with Valor. Although the Valor report highlights that Brazil is preparing to enter the prediction market, Brazilians already have initiatives like Prévias and Palpitada operating in the country, while regulators debate whether supervision should fall under the CVM (Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission), the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance.

Investors will be able to bet, for example, on whether the dollar will fall below R$5 on a specific date or whether the Ibovespa will surpass 200 points in May. The expectation is that the launch will occur, at the latest, by the beginning of the second quarter of this year.

The operation of predictive market contracts involves bettors taking opposing positions on the same event. For example, if one investor bets R$40 that the Ibovespa will reach 200 points in March, and another bets R$60 that this will not happen, whoever is correct takes the total amount of R$100.

Luiz Masagão, vice president of products and clients at B3, explains that the exchange already operates with similar products. “There is an audience seeking this simplicity. It's an entry point, so that [the target audience] can then evolve in their investments. This is one of the great values ​​of the product,” says Masagão.

He points out that B3 already operates a market similar to these products, such as the Copom option, in which the investor "bets" on the fall, maintenance, or rise of the Selic rate. Currently, the main investors in this product are institutional investors, but individuals are already starting to experiment with it.

Companies in the cryptocurrency and online betting sectors are developing predictive markets platforms in Brazil, allowing users to trade contracts based on the probabilities of future events. These initiatives, which operate on the border between financial derivatives and betting, face significant regulatory challenges in the country, as there is no specific legal framework for this type of operation.

According to estimates by the research firm Eilers & Krejcik, the predictive market could reach an annual volume of US$1 trillion globally. In the United States, platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi lead the segment, which experienced significant growth during the recent presidential election that elected Donald Trump.

ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, has already invested in Polymarket, demonstrating its global interest in this type of market. In Brazil, in addition to initial products focused on financial assets and macroeconomic indicators, B3 is also preparing launches related to macroeconomic events, such as GDP and IPCA (Brazilian inflation index).

The Brazilian market has just gained a new player in the prediction markets: Futuriza, which is scheduled to begin operations in March. The platform also has strategic institutional partners: Play55, a leader in customized solutions for lottery products, capitalization, and sweepstakes; and Grupo Loyalty, a benchmark in digital marketing, online sales, and technology production for the entertainment sector, elected three times as the world's largest affiliate at Sigma, one of the largest business fairs in the iGaming sector.

In an official statement, the CVM (Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission) affirmed that it "monitors, within the scope of its legal competencies, the evolution of initiatives in the capital market and is constantly modernizing regulation and supervision, based on various factors such as innovation, supervisory experience, and demands from market participants." The agency also highlighted that "the new options contracts approved by the agency were analyzed based on current regulations."

Claudia Yoshinaga, coordinator of the Center for Studies in Finance at FGV EAESP, observes that the arrival of new products on the market always requires reflection on regulation, as occurred with cryptocurrencies and sports betting. The main question is whether the predictive market qualifies as betting , regulated by the Ministry of Finance through the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA).

The regulatory uncertainty in Brazil centers on which body would be responsible for oversight: the CVM (Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission), the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance. Industry executives have sought dialogue with regulators, but consider launching platforms without clear definitions risky.

Lissa Workman, a partner at the Mattos Filho law firm specializing in technology and entertainment, warns that the predictive analytics market is entering a gray area in Brazil. "And remember that we're in a year of the World Cup and elections in Brazil," Workman points out, highlighting how these events could boost the sector's growth.

Paulo Brancher, a partner at Mattos Filho in the technology and banking areas, emphasizes that innovation should not compromise necessary safeguards. "Innovation alone cannot eliminate the safeguards that this type of activity involves," he points out. He mentions that in the United States, each contract undergoes prior approval, preventing offers of "self-fulfilling" contracts.

While Polymarket and Kalshi dominate this market in the US, in Brazil local and foreign companies await regulatory definitions. At Kalshi, it's already possible to bet on whether a Supreme Court Justice will be impeached in 2026, demonstrating interest in the Brazilian market.

Internationally, Kalshi managed to gain traction in the US after regulatory approval, operating under CFTC supervision, while blockchain- based initiatives like Polymarket developed outside the traditional financial system. Neither of these platforms is available to Brazilians.

André Santa Ritta, a partner at the Pinheiro Neto law firm specializing in innovation and technology, indicates that both local and foreign companies are paying close attention to future regulatory definitions. Eduardo Carvalhaes, a partner specializing in public law and regulation at the Lefosse law firm, warns: "If there is a regulatory vacuum, the service will still be provided, and it will be outside the scope of regulation."

According to Carvalhaes, there shouldn't be a single regulation for the predictive market, but rather the involvement of several regulators who will need to communicate with each other. He believes that regulators will demand minimum requirements for operating in Brazil, such as a presence in the country and solvency.

The explosion of betting in Brazil has made the idea of ​​predicting outcomes and profiting from it familiar. In the first half of 2025, around 17,7 million Brazilians placed sports bets, according to the Ministry of Finance.

Brazil already has Previews and Palpitada, and in March Futuriza will begin operating.

Although the VALOR report highlights that Brazil is preparing to enter the prediction market, Brazilians already have initiatives like Prévias and Palpitada operating in the country, while regulators debate whether supervision should fall under the CVM (Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission), the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance. Companies in the cryptocurrency and online betting sectors are developing alternatives that work with Pix payments, but face regulatory uncertainty.

The Brazilian market has just gained a new player in the forecasting markets: Futuriza, which is scheduled to begin operations in March. Futuriza will operate on two complementary fronts: in the B2C model, Brazilian users can participate in markets on politics, economics, sports, entertainment, and culture; and in the B2B model, it works with companies, media outlets, and institutions seeking to capture collective intelligence for strategic decisions.