Bets on the 2026 election total R$ 103 million on Polymarket, with Lula leading by 53%.
The international platform Polymarket has registered US$19,9 million in bets on the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. This amount is equivalent to approximately R$103 million at an exchange rate of approximately R$5,20 per dollar. Lula leads the odds with a 53% probability of winning, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro with 29%.
The Polymarket system functions as an election prediction market. Users deposit money into different candidates, generating odds that vary according to the volume of bets on each name. This activity reflects international interest in the Brazilian presidential race.
Check out the predictions for the presidency at Polymarket.
Check out other political bets on Polymarket.
Distribution of bets among the candidates
Lula has attracted US$3,40 million in bets, equivalent to R$17,7 million. A bet of R$100 (about US$19) on the current president currently returns about US$35 (approximately R$182) if he wins.
Flávio Bolsonaro has accumulated US$2,42 million in betting volume, approximately R$12,6 million. In the senator's case, a R$100 bet would yield approximately R$333 if he is elected.
Tarcísio de Freitas has a 4% probability. The governor of São Paulo has accumulated US$2,63 million in bets, approximately R$13,7 million.
Renan Santos, leader of the MBL who is running as a pre-candidate for the Missão party, has a 6% chance. The amount wagered on his name reaches US$2,11 million, equivalent to R$11 million.
Fernando Haddad has a 2% chance assigned by the platform. The Finance Minister has accumulated US$1,49 million in bets, approximately R$7,8 million.
Ineligible individuals also receive bets.
Jair Bolsonaro, imprisoned and ineligible to run for office, has garnered US$1,63 million in betting opportunities, approximately R$8,5 million. The platform assigns the former president a 1% chance of winning.
Michelle Bolsonaro has less than a 1% probability. The former first lady has a net worth of US$1,81 million, equivalent to R$9,4 million.
Financial returns from betting
Polymarket is not limited to officially announced pre-candidacies. The platform includes politicians who have not declared their candidacy, allowing bets on different scenarios in the Brazilian electoral race.
