Flávio signals to the clubs, but doesn't promise the return of betting.

The most encouraging news for the betting sector since September 25th didn't come from Brasília, nor from the Supreme Court. It came from a phone call. According to a report in Folha de S.Paulo , a day after the publication of Provisional Measure 1.394/2026, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) called the president of Flamengo, Luiz Eduardo Baptista, known as Bap, and guaranteed that, if elected, he would find a solution for the clubs and the betting houses.

The newspaper spoke to three people connected to football and the campaign. All confirmed the gesture. And all also confirmed its limitation: Flávio did not commit to reinstating the authorization for the companies to resume operations.

The central point of this analysis lies in the gap between "finding a solution" and "restoring legality." Two days before the second round of voting, the sector has concrete reasons to be optimistic. And it has equally concrete reasons not to confuse a signal with a commitment.

The flag that didn't win votes.

The government gambled on the ban as an electoral trump card and lost the bet. A Datafolha poll from October 1st showed 78% of Brazilians in favor of ending betting. Three days later, Flávio finished the first round ahead of Lula, with 47,03% of the vote against 45,16%.

The Quaest survey this Wednesday (21) reinforces the diagnosis. Among the government measures remembered by voters, the ban on bets appears tied with the package for individual micro-entrepreneurs (MEIs), with only 11% each. The measure that the government treated as the “plebiscite” of the election, in force since September 25 and repeated ad nauseam in the campaign, has the same recall as a package announced on October 13, 12 days before the second round. Approving a ban when asked is one thing; remembering it when voting is another.

Folha itself reports what BNLData has been pointing out from the beginning: Lula's advisors believe that the positive effect of the measure was less than expected. The president began to avoid the topic. The rejection of betting in polls never translated into votes, and the ban caused a rebound effect among clubs, media outlets, and the bettors themselves.

It wasn't for lack of warning. The government read the rejection polls and ignored those who would lose out with the measure: the recreational gambler, the sports fan, the worker in the sector. Now, according to the report, centrist parliamentarians are already considering legalizing betting after the elections. The provisional measure, which originated as a campaign tool, arrives in Congress as a liability.

What Flávio said — and what he didn't say.

The gestures are real. Flávio stated that the ban, enacted "with the stroke of a pen," undermined legal certainty, clubs, and companies in the sector. This is the same diagnosis that operators, entities, and BNLData have been making since the issuance of the Provisional Measure. On the day of the phone call to Bap, he published a poll on X about the Flamengo supporters' vote. Days later, he encouraged the president of Santos, Marcelo Teixeira, to vote for him.

But history calls for caution. The senator voted against the regulation of the sector, approved in 2023. During the campaign, he associated Lula with the "little tiger game" (a reference to a popular Brazilian game similar to tag). And, as of the publication of this report, his campaign has not responded to Folha's questions, sent since October 8th.

“Solution” can mean many things. It could be the full reinstatement of the legal framework. It could be a new law, with new rules and new deadlines. It could simply be bailouts for the clubs, without the companies involved. As long as the candidate doesn't say which one, the sector will be betting in the dark, but the alternative, however, is more cruel.

The risk of compromise.

The most worrying sign in the report is in an almost side note: Flávio defends differentiating virtual casinos from sports betting. This is not an isolated idea. According to Estadão, Lula himself was advised, before the Provisional Measure, to prohibit only online casinos. When both sides of the dispute flirt with the same distinction, it ceases to be a hypothesis and becomes a possible path.

It would be a mistake. Law 14.790/2023 treated sports betting and online gaming as parts of the same regulated market, under the same authorizations, the same rules for protecting bettors, and the same oversight. Even with the regulated market functioning, the illegal market still accounted for more than 40% of the activity. Reopening only sports betting would keep all the demand for online gaming out of the reach of the State, in the hands of those who do not pay taxes, do not verify age, and do not protect anyone.

The "little tiger" doesn't disappear by decree. It just changes address. The difference is whether that address has a tax ID, license, and regulations, or a server in another country.

Football as guarantor and the shadow of the Federal Police.

Football has become the main political force against the ban. Flamengo joined the lawsuit challenging the provisional measure in the Supreme Federal Court (STF), overseen by Justice Luiz Fux. They replaced their main sponsorship with the phrase "prohibiting is not protecting." The clubs boycotted the meeting with the government, with the discreet approval of the CBF president, Samir Xaud. And the Fla-Flu match on October 11th became a national protest, broadcast on open television, including insults directed at the PT candidate seeking re-election.

However, there is a shadow over Flávio's gesture. The Federal Police are investigating whether he is an indirect partner of lawyer Willer Tomaz, considered the biggest bettor in the regulated market in 2025. Any reopening conducted by a potential Flávio government will be viewed with this suspicion. Those who defend the prohibition already have their argument ready.

It's important to remember a detail that the debate often forgets: it was only possible to track these movements because the market was regulated. With the prohibition, this type of trace disappears. Therefore, the solution needs to be institutional, not a favor from a candidate. The path forward is through Congress, in analyzing the provisional measure, and the Supreme Court, in judging the actions.

What the sector needs to demand

Today's scenario is better than in September. The ban has lost its electoral force, the government has backed down from its rhetoric, the centrist bloc is mobilizing, and Lula's main opponent is publicly criticizing the measure. But optimism is not strategy.

Regardless of who becomes president on January 1st, the sector must demand three things, clearly:

⇒ The reinstatement of the 2023 legal framework in its entirety, including sports betting and online gaming, and not a negotiated version.

Respect for grants already paid and the legal security of those who invested trusting in the State.

⇒ A solution through Congress and the Supreme Court that does not depend on the goodwill of a ruler nor is it exposed to suspicions of an investigation.

The phone call to Bap shows that the door is ajar. It's up to the department to ensure it opens fully. Because, as I've been repeating for years, gambling is either legal or illegal; not gambling is impossible.