B3 takes a new step in the forecasting market with IPCA and GDP contracts.
On Monday (29), B3 launched two new event contracts aimed at the forecasts market: one linked to the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the official inflation indicator, and the other to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures the country's economic activity.
The new instruments, identified by the codes PCA and PIB, were authorized by the Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) for professional investors, that is, those with more than R$ 10 million allocated in financial assets or with technical certification issued by the regulatory body. This information was published by Estadão.
The exchange had already taken a first step in this segment in April, when it launched event contracts associated with the Ibovespa, the dollar, and Bitcoin, also restricted to professional investors. The institution's objective, however, is to broaden access for individual investors.
“We understand that limiting this to professional investors only creates a restriction for individual investors, who have a great interest in this type of product,” said Luiz Masagão, Vice President of Products and Clients at B3, in a statement made in early March.
How contracts work
Although they share similarities with traditional options contracts, event contracts have an important distinction: they do not allow leverage. This means the investor cannot lose more than the amount invested, limiting risk for both buyers and sellers.
Negotiation in both contracts occurs through the probability of the event occurring, reflected in the contract price, which can range from R$ 0 to R$ 100. In the PCA contract, the positioning is based on the monthly variation of the IPCA (Brazilian Consumer Price Index). In the PIB (Gross Domestic Product) contract, the reference is the quarterly variation of economic activity.
Regulatory context
In the United States, the prediction market has grown with contracts covering a wide range of topics, from elections to awards such as the Oscars. However, the sector faces legal challenges; American states have contested the prediction platforms, arguing that they should follow the same rules applicable to traditional sports betting companies.
In Brazil, the National Monetary Council (CMN) published a resolution at the end of April prohibiting the operation of predictive markets for sports, elections, and other real-world events. However, the measure did not affect B3, whose contracts are classified as financial instruments.
