B3 wants to enter the 'predictions market' in early 2026.

The Brazilian stock exchange, B3, is expected to launch its first prediction market products soon, with options linked to the Ibovespa itself, the dollar and Bitcoin, said B3 President Gilson Finkelsztain on Thursday (5) during lunch with journalists.

B3 plans to launch its first digital options in the forecast market during the first quarter of this year.

The initiative seeks to bring to the Brazilian market a model inspired by the prediction markets, famous in the United States, which allow investors to trade expectations about the behavior of financial indicators.

These instruments will function like "binary options," allowing bets on the behavior of certain assets, with choices limited to "yes" or "no." An example would be predicting whether the dollar will be above a certain value at the end of a specific period.

Event contracts are derivatives with a binary outcome. The investor pays a premium upfront to bet on the occurrence of a specific scenario. If the prediction comes true, they receive the full value of the contract; if it does not, they only lose the amount initially paid.

"There is no possibility of you losing more than the premium you paid," Finkelsztain stated.

The Brazilian stock exchange is in talks with the regulator regarding sales restrictions and the target audience for these new products. According to the CEO, the expectation is to have the product operational by the end of the first half of the year, with the possibility of a debut as early as the first quarter.

Diversification strategy

The president of B3 indicates that global stock exchanges are aiming to derive between 30% and 35% of their revenue from the data analytics sector. The Brazilian company sees competitive advantages in operating in areas beyond the capital market, such as financing.

"We want to have the strength of a business that generates results regardless of the economic cycle," Finkelsztain emphasizes.

The consolidation of companies under the Trillia brand aims to strengthen the exchange's presence in the data analytics segment. The operations will be conducted in Brazil, where B3 maintains its headquarters and main activities.