Finance Ministry coordinates with federal agencies to block expansion of the forecasting market.

The Ministry of Finance has launched a coordinated effort between different departments of the federal government to curb the expansion of the forecasting market in Brazil. This mobilization began after the inauguration of Minister Dario Durigan. The initiative intensified when the brokerage firm XP and the bank BTG announced their entry into the sector.

The move is in line with legalized sports betting companies. These companies have identified unfair competition in the prediction segment.

Articulation involves multiple organs.

The coordination team includes the Federal Revenue Service, the CVM (Securities and Exchange Commission), the Attorney General's Office of the National Treasury, and the National Consumer Secretariat of the Ministry of Justice. Other agencies are also participating in the mobilization.

The goal is to prevent the prediction market from growing uncontrollably. The Lula (PT) government seeks to prevent a repeat of the scenario with sports betting . Sports betting was approved in 2019. Regulation only came in 2025.

Prediction platforms function like a stock exchange. Users bet "yes" or "no" on the outcomes of future events.

Controversial cases have generated global distrust.

Polymarket came under scrutiny in January. An anonymous user won nearly R$2,5 million by betting on the capture of Nicolás Maduro. The profit came shortly before the official announcement.

Kalshi also generated controversy. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt ended an interview after 64 minutes and 40 seconds. A bet on the platform predicted that the event would end before 65 minutes. The result generated immediate profits.

Unusual results on international platforms have generated distrust regarding the use of insider information. The White House has instructed its staff not to participate in this type of market.

Requirements for bets contrast with the prediction market.

Legalized betting companies in Brazil must pay a grant of R$ 30 million. The validity is five years. Companies must have their headquarters and legal representation in the country. They must collect taxes and adopt security measures for the user. Facial recognition is mandatory.

The prediction market does not face these demands. Legalized betting sites see this difference as unfair competition.

Legal vacuum generates uncertainty.

Leonardo Henrique Roscoe Bessa, partner at Betlaw, a law firm focused on the betting sector, assesses the current situation. “Currently, the prediction market operates in a gray area in Brazil. There is no explicit prohibition, but there is also no specific regulation that guarantees legal security for this type of operation,” he stated.

“In practice, the Brazilian legal system has not yet defined how to classify this model. This creates a scenario of uncertainty, in which different bodies may interpret the activity in different ways,” says Bessa.

There are loopholes that allow for restricted operation. There is no definition of how the Brazilian legal system will frame this business model.

Expansion planned despite mobilization

Luana Lopes Lara, from Minas Gerais and co-founder of Kalshi, has already declared her intention to open an office in Brazil. She has partnered with XP to enter the country.

The TSE (Superior Electoral Court) prohibits betting on election results. This type of betting is highly popular in the North American prediction market.

International platforms allow betting on any event. Bets on wars and tragedies generate millions. This rapid expansion raises ethical debates worldwide.