The government only accounts for a third of the losses from betting and admits it may cut payments to legal beneficiaries.
In an interview with Valor published this Monday (19), the Minister of Planning, Bruno Moretti, reaffirmed the number that the government and the press have been repeating: the ban on bets will reduce revenue by R$ 5,3 billion in 2027. Added to the R$ 1,5 billion estimated for the end of 2026, the official loss is R$ 6,8 billion.
Moretti went further: he said that the government is considering reducing expenses linked to betting revenue, lessening the impact on the budget. In practice, the cut falls on the legal beneficiaries of Law No. 14.790/2023, such as sports, tourism, public safety, health, and education.
Official data obtained by BNLData through the Access to Information Law tells a different story. In 2025, the first year of the regulated market, operators returned R$ 14,45 billion to the government and society. In the first half of 2026, federal revenue already totaled R$ 7,284 billion.
At the current rate of 2026, the ban will take approximately R$ 14,6 billion per year from public coffers, almost triple what the government admits. Even a large financial institution consulted by Valor estimates a loss of R$ 11,2 billion from betting in 2027, more than double the official estimate.
What is the R$ 5,3 billion?
The Planning figure coincides with the contribution to the GGR, the portion that Law No. 14.790/2023 distributes among the legal beneficiaries: the Ministries of Sport and Tourism, the National Public Security Fund, Funapol, Health, Education, Social Security, and others. According to Moretti, the calculation mainly considers taxation on company profits and the inspection fee.
The arithmetic confirms it. In the 12 months leading up to June 2026, legal beneficiaries received an average of R$ 413,5 million per month, approximately R$ 5 billion per year, at a rate of 13%. With the 14% already approved for 2027 by Complementary Law No. 224/2025, the amount reaches approximately R$ 5,3 billion, exactly the figure given by the minister.
In other words, the R$ 5,3 billion is not a loss for the government. It is a loss for the legal beneficiaries. In 2025, this share was R$ 4,5 billion, 31% of what the sector returned to the public coffers.
Speaking to Valor, Moretti justified the lower-than-market estimate: the government anticipates some reduction in the volume of bets due to the restrictive measures already in place. Official data does not show this decrease. In the first half of 2026, the GGR totaled R$ 20,07 billion, a 15,3% increase over the same period in 2025. Revenue from legal beneficiaries remained at the same level as the previous semester, and June 2026 hit a record high of R$ 513 million.
Cutting earmarked spending doesn't eliminate the loss; it merely transfers it. If the government reduces the transfers, the impact on the budget decreases on paper, but those who stop receiving funds are the ministries, funds, and entities that the law defined as beneficiaries.
What was left out of the account
Most of what the operators paid went directly to the federal treasury, and this portion does not appear in the official calculation. In 2025, the Federal Revenue Service collected R$ 9,95 billion in federal taxes from the regulated sector: corporate income tax, social contribution on net profit, PIS/Cofins, and social security contributions. This is more than double what went to the legal beneficiaries.
Also excluded are:
⇒ Regulatory fees: the authorization process generated billions, and the Inspection Fee yielded R$ 105 million in 2025.
⇒ Income tax on prizes: collected from bettors in their annual tax return.
⇒ Future concessions: the authorizations of R$ 30 million are valid for five years. Without a regulated market, there will be no renewals or new companies, and the Provisional Measure opens the risk of lawsuits for compensation.
In the first half of 2026, with the GGR (Gross Generating Waste) increasing by 15,3% and the tax rate on the GGR rising from 12% to 13%, federal revenue from the sector reached R$ 7,284 billion, a rate that would lead to approximately R$ 14,6 billion for the year.
The full account
At the rate of the first half of 2026, the loss between October 2026 and December 2027 reaches approximately R$ 18,2 billion, compared to the government's R$ 6,8 billion. BNLData's projection is conservative: it does not consider market growth or the 14% tax rate on GGR (Gross Revenue Management) projected for 2027.
Market estimates that most closely match official data are those that include federal taxes for operators. The estimate from the institution consulted by Valor is lower than that of BNLData because it assumes that some of the money previously invested returns to the economy as taxed consumption.
The hole in the 2027 Budget
The government will send an amendment to the 2027 budget proposal to Congress to reallocate approximately R$ 20 billion to accommodate the measures announced during the campaign, according to Moretti. According to the Planning Ministry's calculations, the package will have an impact of R$ 53,6 billion in 2027: R$ 45,7 billion in new expenses and R$ 7,9 billion in reduced revenue. Betting accounts for the largest share of the revenue loss.
The Ministry of Planning confirmed the reallocation in a note this Monday (19). The message will be sent to Congress when a rapporteur is designated for the PLOA and the LDO of 2027. In the note, the ministry states that the expenses are supported by legislation and that the execution of public policies cannot be confused with spending motivated by the electoral calendar. The note does not mention the loss with the bets. For Warren Investimentos, if the pace of measures of recent months is maintained, it will be even more difficult to deliver the minimum primary result foreseen in the PLOA.
The financial institution consulted by Valor estimates the total impact at R$ 87,9 billion. The difference stems mainly from bets and the inclusion of fuel subsidies. For Alexandre Andrade, director of IFI, the new permanent expenses narrow the discretionary spending leeway and, without changes to the rules for mandatory spending, "the cut would fall on investment and operating expenses."
The discrepancy comes at a time when the 2027 budget is already under suspicion. The Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI) of the Senate projects a deficit of R$ 86,1 billion in 2027, compared to the surplus of R$ 18,6 billion projected in the government's plan.
A joint technical report from the Budget advisory offices of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate calculated R$ 39,8 billion in adjustments to accommodate the measures announced by Lula during the campaign. The ban on betting is mentioned, but no estimated value is given.
Regarding the losses from betting, the Planning Ministry does not foresee full compensation. Moretti said that it could be absorbed by revisions in oil and inflation projections and by cutting expenses linked to the sector's revenue. Tax experts also point to the risk of the burden falling on consumption, via the CBS (Contribution on Goods and Services).
All this for a sector that, in 2025, had a gross revenue of R$ 36,9 billion and 25,2 million bettors, equivalent to less than 0,3% of GDP. For the legal beneficiaries, the loss until the end of the concessions, in 2029, reaches R$ 16 billion, as shown by BNLData.
The fate of this revenue also depends on the 2nd round, on October 25th. Flávio Bolsonaro defends keeping sports betting and only ending online casinos, but neither he nor Lula mentioned bets in the Band debate, on Sunday (18).
