Kalshi is negotiating a new $40 billion funding round and challenging US betting rules.
Kalshi is in negotiations to raise capital with a market valuation of approximately US$40 billion. The American company, which operates in the predictive markets sector, could close the new funding round as early as the third quarter of 2026, according to sources familiar with the negotiations.
The negotiations are taking place just weeks after the company raised $1 billion in a funding round that valued it at $22 billion, according to the Financial Times. The new investment highlights the platform's expansion and the advance of predictive markets into segments dominated by large derivatives and digital betting operators.
Kalshi's valuation trajectory is accelerating. In December 2025, the company was worth US$11 billion; months earlier, in the same year, its market value was US$5 billion. The most recent funding round included participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, Philippe Laffont's investment firm, and Morgan Stanley.
Growth and products
Led by Tarek Mansour, Kalshi gained prominence by correctly predicting Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election. The platform allows betting on binary outcomes on a variety of topics, from weather forecasts to the monthly closing of the S&P 500 index, to words that sports commentators will use during World Cup matches.
The company's trading volume exceeded US$17 billion in May 2026, compared to less than US$5 billion recorded in the same period of the previous year. Sports betting accounts for approximately 65% of this volume. Multi-stage combination bets, launched on the platform in September 2025, have since become one of the most popular options.
Kalshi's growth has been fueled by the permissive stance of U.S. federal regulators and the implicit support of President Trump. In a social media post last month, Trump called critics of predictive market platforms "scum." Donald Trump Jr. joined the company as a strategic advisor in early 2025.
Regulatory disputes
Kalshi's expansion has generated legal reactions on several fronts. Last week, CME Group, a derivatives exchange operator, filed a lawsuit against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the US derivatives regulator, challenging the approval of Kalshi's perpetual futures contracts for betting on cryptocurrency prices. The product competes directly with CME's futures contracts, which are widely traded on Wall Street.
At the state level, several American governments have also taken action against the company. In March 2026, Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi, alleging the operation of an unlicensed gambling business and the illegal offering of bets on elections. In February 2026, a Massachusetts judge prohibited the platform from accepting sports bets in the state, citing risks to public health and safety.
Kalshi is contesting both lawsuits. The company argues that its event contracts should be regulated as derivatives by the CFTC, which would allow it to operate without being subject to state laws on sports betting. Approximately two-thirds of bets placed on the platform result in financial losses for users, according to a source familiar with the company's operations.
