Sebrae's research on betting measures opinion, not losses, and receives the Narrative Seal.
Sebrae released this Sunday (11) the survey “Perception of small businesses on the end of Bets”, reported by UOL in the report Bets: 66% of small businesses support the ban, points out Sebrae . The survey interviewed 1.028 MEIs, micro-enterprises and small businesses in early October, days after the publication of Provisional Measure No. 1.394/2026.
The president of Sebrae, Décio Lima, stated that the data "clearly shows" the migration of money from local commerce to online gambling. Décio has just returned to his position after unsuccessfully running for a Senate seat for the PT party in Santa Catarina. BNLData analyzed the published figures and they do not support the executive's conclusion.
What the research actually says
Revenue. Only 26% of respondents associate the drop in revenue with betting. Another 51% say that betting had no direct effect, and 23% did not know how to assess it. In other words, 74% of small businesses do not report losses.
Customers. One third (33%) noticed consumers with less money, meaning that 67% did not notice. The research also does not explain how the business owner would know that the customer's financial strain comes from gambling, and not from interest rates, household debt, or income.
Effect of the ban. Only 38% expect to sell more with the end of betting. About 62% project stability, a decrease, or don't know. The average score for the expected impact on the local economy was 6,1, on a scale of zero to ten.
Perception is not evidence.
The survey is an opinion poll. It does not measure revenue, sales, or consumer flow, and it does not compare the performance of companies before and after regulation. Using it to claim that retail revenue has "migrated" to betting is to extrapolate what the data allows.
What was not reported
The report does not provide a margin of error, data collection method, interviewee selection criteria, sample weighting, or the wording of the questions. Without this information, it is impossible to know if the 1.028 respondents represent the universe of small businesses in the country.
The data on employees has the same problem. The 40% that indicate an impact on teams refers only to companies with employees, and the size of this group was not disclosed. Since a self-employed individual (MEI) can hire a maximum of one employee, the base may be much smaller than the total sample.
Who signs off on the research?
Sebrae is a private entity within the "Sistema S" (a system of private, non-profit organizations that provide vocational training and other services), but its leadership answers to the federal government. The President of the Republic does not appoint the board of directors by decree, but the Presidential Palace holds a majority on the council that elects them and, in practice, chooses who runs the institution. The current administration came about this way: in March 2023, then-president Carlos Melles resigned under pressure from the Lula government, and Décio Lima was appointed to the position by the President of the Republic.
A former federal deputy for the PT (Workers' Party) and former mayor of Blumenau, Décio ran for governor of Santa Catarina in 2022 and was defeated. Upon assuming the presidency of Sebrae (Brazilian Micro and Small Business Support Service), he defined the entity as a "partner of President Lula's government." At the end of March of this year, he left the position to be the PT candidate for the Senate in Santa Catarina. In the elections of October 4th, he finished in fourth place, with 823.200 votes (10,22%), and was not elected. He then returned to the presidency of Sebrae.
During his absence, the position remained at home. The Deliberative Council unanimously elected Rodrigo Soares , also linked to the PT (Workers' Party), as interim president. He was a former state deputy in Paraíba for two terms, between 2003 and 2011, and until then chief of staff to the president of Sebrae (Brazilian Micro and Small Business Support Service).
The party affiliation of the leaders does not, in itself, invalidate the data. But it helps to understand the context: an entity presided over by a PT candidate defeated at the polls a week ago publishes, in the midst of the second-round campaign, a survey whose title already treats the "end of Bets" as a fact and whose official conclusion coincides with the Planalto's discourse.
The caveats that were left out of the headline.
The study notes that some business owners fear bettors will migrate to clandestine platforms and criticize the legal uncertainty of a total ban, given the authorizations already granted. Among the suggested alternatives are stricter rules, limits per individual taxpayer ID (CPF), and restrictions on advertising. In other words, regulation, not prohibition.
Verdict: Narrative Seal
The 66% support for the ban is an opinion figure and, as such, may be true. But support for a measure does not prove the economic damage attributed to betting. By presenting perceptions as evidence of harm to commerce, when the majority of respondents say they have not been affected, the Sebrae survey receives the Narrative Seal from FactCheck BNLData.
