Polymarket offers betting on the Brazilian elections, despite CMN's block.
The New York-based betting platform Polymarket, blocked in Brazil since April 2026, maintains at least 40 types of prediction markets regarding this year's Brazilian elections. These markets include bets on the presidential race, state governorships, and Senate seats.
On Thursday (September 10th), Estadão identified active trading on the website for both rounds of the election races, with bets on specific candidates and possible outcomes. The platform also registers markets regarding candidates' attendance at televised debates and the potential removal of Minister Alexandre de Moraes from the Supreme Federal Court (STF).
The National Monetary Council (CMN) banned Polymarket for violating Brazilian law. The Ministry of Finance states that it is monitoring the activities of platforms operating irregularly in the country and reported having forwarded more than 68 websites for blocking. "The fight against the illegal market is continuous, since irregular operators can use different mechanisms to try to circumvent access restrictions," the ministry declared.
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) chose not to comment on the matter when consulted. Polymarket was contacted but did not respond.
Access via VPN and the bettor's responsibility.
Despite the CMN's block, connection masking tools, VPNs (virtual private networks), allow Brazilian bettors to access the platform. The use of VPNs itself is not prohibited by law. Lawyer Taís Gasparian, specializing in digital law, defines the resource as "a neutral tool that allows data privacy and security." However, using it to disobey court orders or circumvent restrictions such as those of the CMN constitutes an illegal act.
Gasparian warns that Brazilian bettors may face civil, tax, and criminal charges, and that any winnings may also be subject to legal action. Anonymity on the platform does not guarantee protection; the VPN provider is obligated to maintain access logs under the Brazilian Internet Civil Rights Framework. "A Brazilian court order directed at a VPN company can request the data, which allows for user identification," stated the lawyer.
Financial barriers are also partial. Deposits via Pix (Brazil's instant payment system) are not available on Polymarket, even with the use of a VPN. Cryptocurrencies, however, remain an alternative to circumvent payment restrictions.
Misinformation in election betting.
Elections in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Pernambuco, Bahia, and 15 other states are among the active markets on the platform. In the comments section, profiles with fictitious names predominate. Most show support for Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator from the same party who is running for president this year; others indicate a vote for Renan Santos, the candidate from the Missão party.
The circulation of false information is recurrent in this space. One comment claims that the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) approved the candidacy of Pablo Marçal (PRTB), who was declared ineligible in August; the judicial decision on the case is scheduled for Friday (September 11). Another anonymous profile accuses research institutes of manipulating public opinion.
Regarding the possibilities of intervention by the Brazilian Justice system in this content, Gasparian is direct: "I don't think it's possible to request the removal of comments about the Brazilian electoral process, nor does it seem to me that there is enough time for that."
Since Polymarket does not operate within the national territory, effective measures against the platform require international cooperation agreements. The same applies to the dissemination of misleading content among bettors. Upon identifying domains that violate Brazilian rules, the Ministry of Finance contacts the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), which instructs service providers to implement blocking measures.
