The first World Cup under the regulated market and the math nobody wants to do.
The 2026 World Cup starts in June.
For the Brazilian betting market, it's not just the biggest sporting event on the planet. It's the first major public test for a sector that was regulated less than two years ago and has yet to concretely prove that it's up to the responsibility it has assumed.
Brazil is expected to generate around R$19 billion in bets during the tournament. But the most important aspect isn't just the financial one.
It's behavioral.
A survey by Creditas, in partnership with Opinion Box, shows why this discussion cannot be treated solely as a commercial opportunity. According to the survey, 20% of respondents said they were willing to go into debt during the World Cup. Among those already in debt at the tournament, 79% intend to gamble, compared to 48% among those not in debt. And, among young people aged 18 to 24, 70% do not rule out participating in gambling during the World Cup.
In other words, we're not just talking about more volume.
We are talking about higher volume in an emotionally charged environment, with a significant portion of the public willing to take on debt, already indebted users more likely to gamble, and young people more exposed to risk.
And the 2026 World Cup has a detail that no previous World Cup had: it's the first with the Brazilian market fully regulated.
This changes everything.
Not just because there will be more volume.
But because there will be more responsibility.
The World Cup is no ordinary sporting event. It's a national emotional event. The bettor who wagered coldly and methodically in February becomes a different person in June. The crowd distorts perception. The sequence of games compresses the time between decisions. The euphoria of a victory and the despair of a defeat alter behavior in ways that no "play responsibly" banner can capture.
In 2026, 104 matches will be played. More than any previous World Cup. Live betting is expected to represent an even larger share of the total volume. This means real-time decisions, with real-time excitement, at a non-stop pace for 40 days.
New bettors will be joining for the first time. Occasional bettors will increase their frequency. Regular bettors will increase their stakes.
It is precisely in this environment that risk patterns emerge. And it is precisely in this environment that most operators are least prepared to identify them.
The entire market is preparing for the World Cup by asking the same question: how many new users will I acquire?
That's the wrong question.
The real question is: of the users I'm going to acquire and those I already have, how many will I be able to protect?
And this is where the math that nobody wants to do comes in.
If the volume of bets increases, the volume of risk also increases. And when risk increases, the obligation to demonstrate due diligence increases along with it.
The World Cup not only expands the opportunity.
It increases liabilities.
Anyone who doesn't have documented evidence that they monitored, identified, and acted during that period will face the consequences after the party is over.
And this bill comes with interest.
The judiciary has already shown that it is paying attention. The regulator has already signaled that it will demand accountability. And the World Cup will bring a volume of cases that the market has not faced at any point since regulation.
It's not guesswork. It's just about connecting the dots.
This is the first World Cup with a regulated Brazilian market. This means that, for the first time, operators have formal obligations to protect bettors during the biggest betting event in the country's history.
Now is not the time to improvise.
Whoever arrives at the World Cup with structured behavioral monitoring, the ability to identify pattern changes in real time, and documented records of their actions will emerge on the other side with something worth more than revenue.
It will come out legitimately.
Anyone who comes in expecting only welcome bonuses, boosted odds, and acquisition campaigns will come out with something else entirely.
With precedent.
The World Cup exposes.
Always exposes.
It exposes the preparedness of the teams. It exposes the quality of the coaches. It reveals who was ready and who was deluding themselves.
The betting market will be no different.
The World Cup starts in June.
The question is simple: are you ready for what comes with it?
Thiago Iusim He is the founder and CEO of Betshield Responsible Gaming, a Brazilian technology company that develops Trust & Protection infrastructure for the regulated betting market, with continuous behavior monitoring, evidence recording, and support for the operational due diligence of operators.
Amilton Noble is an Advisory Partner at Betshield Responsible Gaming and a gaming and lottery specialist with over 30 years of experience in the market.
