The government's 'shameful' regulation of betting generates fantastical narratives.
The fixed-odds betting market in Brazil began operating legally and under regulation in January 2025, but its institutional structure had been built up over several years prior.
A significant milestone in this process was the appointment of Regis Dudena to lead the Prizes and Betting Secretariat in April 2024, at the suggestion of the then Executive Secretary—now Minister of Finance—Dario Durigan. From that moment on, the technical and institutional leadership of the regulatory process that would culminate in the market's entry into force was consolidated.
In this context, the absence of more frequent public pronouncements from the authorities throughout this entire period of structuring and implementation is surprising. Until now, there has been no consistent history of interviews or institutional communications that have tracked the sector's evolution and helped to create predictability among market players.
This silence is reflected in the fantastical narrative created by financial institutions through dubious studies such as those from the Brazilian Association of Financial and Capital Market Entities – AMBIMA, the Brazilian Association of Supermarkets (ABRAS), the Brazilian Institute of Retail Executives (Ibevar), and FIA Business School, which insist on blaming gambling as the main factor associated with household debt in Brazil. The government of President Lula and even ministers of the Supreme Federal Court incorporated this narrative, simplifying its easy repetition to blame gambling.
Since numbers don't lie or get emotional, just use the official data from the Periodic Overview of the Regulated Fixed-Odds Betting Market for the year 2025, released by the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets of the Ministry of Finance. Approximately 11,83% of the Brazilian population is registered on regulated betting platforms. If we consider only the population aged 18 or older (estimated at around 170 million), the percentage rises to approximately 14,85%. Furthermore, each bettor spent, on average, around R$ 122,03 per month in 2025. A study by LCA Consultoria Econômica, released in April, concluded that spending on bets represents only 0,46% of Brazilian household consumption.
Remember that fixed-odds betting and games online Legalized, regulated, and overseen by the Prizes and Betting Secretariat, these betting operations returned R$ 14,45 billion to the government and society in 2025 (R$ 4,5 billion to the legal beneficiaries stipulated in Law 14790/23 and R$ 9,95 billion collected by the Federal Revenue Service, with federal taxes such as IRPJ, CSLL, PIS/Cofins, and Social Security Contribution).
This silence from the Executive branch regarding the defense of fixed-odds betting and online gaming contrasts sharply with the way the recent signaling of restrictions on so-called predictive markets was conducted, marked by strong public exposure and the participation of prominent government figures such as Finance Minister Dario Durigan and Miriam Belchior. In the government's institutional structure, the Civil House plays a central role in strategic coordination, inter-ministerial articulation, and alignment of public policies, being responsible for ensuring coherence between technical agendas and the Executive's political guidelines. The Minister's presence at this announcement, therefore, indicates that the decision goes beyond the strictly regulatory scope and takes on a broader character of governmental coordination.
The asymmetry in communication raises legitimate questions about the criteria adopted. In particular, the perception that concerns related to the electoral calendar may have influenced the positioning is gaining strength, especially given the potential—albeit debated—for these markets to interfere in the formation of political expectations.
Although the outcome was well received by certain sectoral associations, the underlying motivation behind the regulatory decisions needs to be understood with greater transparency. In an environment that seeks to consolidate institutional credibility and legal certainty, decisions of this nature require predictability, coherence, and clarity of rationale.
The relationship between the Federal Government and online betting companies has been described as complex and sometimes contradictory, alternating between regulation for tax collection and criticism for social impacts. However, President Lula has recently adopted a critical tone, associating the population's indebtedness with gambling addiction, calling it a "casino at home".
In fact, the political actors who are currently opposing the bets legal, they should be concerned with fighting the bets illegal. Anyone who wants to gamble, but cannot do so legally, will seek it on the informal market.
