How to choose the numbers for lotteries using statistical criteria.
Did you know that when you choose 6 numbers to bet on in the Mega-Sena lottery, the highest probability is that you'll get 0 numbers right? On the other hand, if you choose 40 numbers, the highest probability is of getting 4 numbers right, that is, it's easier to get 4 right than 3 or 2 right. Check out the highest probability ranges in the Mega-Sena below:
Tabela 1:
The higher mathematical probability of scoring based on the number of tens chosen, the greater the probability of winning.
| Quantity of tens | Higher probability | 2nd highest probability |
| 6 to 7 | 0 point | 1 point |
| 8 to 11 | 1 point | 0 point |
| 12 to 16 | 1 point | 2 points |
| 17 to 20 | 2 points | 1 point |
| 21 to 25 | 2 points | 3 points |
| 26 to 30 | 3 points | 2 points |
| 31 to 34 | 3 points | 4 points |
| 35 to 39 | 4 points | 3 points |
| 40 to 43 | 4 points | 5 points |
| 44 to 48 | 5 points | 4 points |
| 49 to 52 | 5 points | 6 points |
| 53 to 60 | 6 points | 5 points |
According to Table 1, the highest probability of getting four correct numbers occurs with 35 numbers or more. You can verify this in practice by conducting an experiment. Choose 35 random numbers and check the scores obtained in the last 10 draws. You should have obtained 4 or 3 points in most of them. Number Selection: What is better to bet on, choosing the most frequently drawn numbers, the average numbers, or the least frequently drawn numbers? The best approach is to mix the numbers according to their frequency of appearance. For example, if we divide the 60 numbers into 3 groups of 20, the highest probability of winning will be 2 points in each group. Frequently, one of them may have 3 or 1 point. Therefore, if we want to bet on only 6 numbers, a game that would favor the highest probability would be one in which we choose 2 numbers from each of the 3 groups of 20. If we have a better financial situation, where we can bet on 12 numbers, then the best option would be to choose 4 numbers from each group. For 18 numbers, the best probability would be to choose 6 numbers from each group, and so on. Since we already know that from 35 numbers onwards the highest probability is 4 points, a good choice would be 36 numbers, with 12 numbers from each group. Groups of 20 numbers: To divide the 60 numbers into 3 groups of 20, the method you choose doesn't matter. You can divide them according to frequency of appearance, for example, one group with the 20 most frequently appearing numbers, another group with those of medium frequency, and the third group with the 20 least frequently appearing numbers. Or you can divide them randomly as well. The division method doesn't matter. On average, each group of 20 numbers should hit 2, 1, or 3 points. We know this doesn't seem trivial, but it's easily verifiable in practice. Choose any group of 20 numbers and check the score obtained in any 10 draws. As a suggestion, we have separated 3 groups below according to the numbers that have appeared most frequently this year alone.
Group A: highest frequency
03 06 08 13 14 16 17 18 23 25 29 29 30 31 33 45 49 53 55 57
Group B: average frequency
01 04 07 12 15 19 22 28 32 34 35 37 38 39 46 47 50 51 54 58
Group C: lower frequency
02 05 09 10 11 20 21 24 26 27 36 40 41 42 43 44 48 52 56 60
Game suggestion:
To play a simple game with 6 numbers, choose 2 numbers from each group.
For 12 numbers, choose 4 numbers from each group. For 18 numbers, choose 6 numbers from each group.
Check the "Economic Schemes" section of the print newspaper to learn how to create a game with 12 numbers using 8 bets (R$ 12) to compete for the accumulated Mega-Sena jackpot.
Note: To apply the same scheme with more tens:
18 numbers = 27 bets
24 numbers = 64 bets
30 numbers = 125 bets
36 numbers = 216 bets
42 numbers = 343 bets
48 numbers = 512 bets
54 numbers = 729 bets
60 numbers = 1.000 bets
(Source: Aposte Bem – http://www.apostebem.com.br/ )
